***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.4 14.0 0.6 56.4 55.0 15.0 16.5 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.1 13.8 0.4 56.8 54.2 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.7 14.4 0.5 55.7 54.8 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.6 11.9 0.7 56.3 55.0 6.8 8.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.9 12.8 0.7 55.9 55.2 15.3 17.2 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 10.9 0.8 59.2 55.3 14.1 15.1 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.9 13.8 0.5 57.0 54.7 15.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.2 11.4 0.8 57.7 55.4 3.3 4.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.3 13.2 0.7 56.0 55.3 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.3 12.2 0.8 56.8 55.6 15.7 17.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.5 12.7 0.7 56.2 55.6 15.4 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.8 16.2 12.4 0.7 58.4 55.2 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.2 11.6 0.7 59.5 55.7 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.8 17.8 13.0 0.5 55.1 54.0 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.6 12.6 0.6 58.8 54.5 14.5 15.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.8 12.2 0.7 57.2 55.4 15.5 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.3 13.5 0.4 56.1 53.8 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.6 17.1 11.8 0.8 57.0 56.0 15.0 16.7 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.3 14.0 0.4 56.5 54.1 16.0 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 11.5 9.1 0.9 57.3 56.6 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.6 13.8 0.6 55.4 55.0 15.5 16.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.2 13.6 0.3 54.6 53.1 16.0 17.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 14.2 0.5 56.5 54.2 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.6 13.1 0.7 55.8 55.0 15.8 17.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.9 12.5 0.6 55.9 55.2 14.5 16.5 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.6 11.3 0.7 59.1 55.3 14.9 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 13.4 0.6 56.9 55.3 15.6 16.7 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.1 12.2 0.7 57.0 54.8 14.4 15.7 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.7 10.9 0.9 57.5 56.2 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 13.9 0.5 57.1 54.4 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------