***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 13.9 1.4 65.3 61.5 12.9 14.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.7 13.7 1.3 64.8 60.7 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.3 14.3 1.4 64.4 60.9 13.4 14.8 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 9.3 8.8 11.7 1.5 64.1 61.1 5.4 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.3 12.4 1.3 62.1 59.3 13.7 14.8 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.7 16.2 10.2 1.1 59.1 56.8 11.7 13.9 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.2 13.6 1.3 65.7 60.1 12.4 14.0 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.7 10.9 1.1 59.4 57.6 1.5 2.9 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.7 12.8 1.3 63.2 59.4 13.1 14.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.2 11.7 1.2 61.0 58.5 13.0 14.6 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.0 12.1 1.1 59.4 57.6 13.0 14.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.7 11.7 1.0 57.2 56.7 12.2 13.8 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.8 10.8 0.9 57.8 55.9 13.5 14.8 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.7 12.8 1.3 61.4 59.2 13.4 15.6 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 16.1 15.9 12.4 1.5 64.9 61.7 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.5 11.5 1.0 59.7 57.2 13.9 15.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.6 13.4 1.3 65.3 60.2 11.8 13.7 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.7 16.0 11.4 1.3 61.9 58.9 12.9 14.0 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.0 13.9 1.4 64.2 60.8 12.8 14.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.4 8.7 1.2 62.9 58.3 7.3 9.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.7 13.6 1.4 64.5 60.5 13.4 14.7 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.0 13.6 1.3 64.1 60.3 12.6 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.4 14.1 1.4 64.0 60.5 13.0 15.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.6 12.8 1.4 62.9 59.6 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.1 12.4 1.5 65.8 61.5 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.6 10.6 0.8 57.0 55.6 12.5 13.9 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 15.9 15.9 13.2 1.4 65.9 61.4 13.1 14.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.9 11.9 1.4 63.5 60.4 13.6 14.9 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.1 10.4 1.3 61.5 58.5 7.6 9.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.6 13.7 1.3 64.8 61.0 12.7 13.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------