***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.8 12.2 0.8 58.1 55.1 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.3 12.0 0.6 55.1 52.9 9.6 11.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.4 12.4 0.6 55.4 53.5 9.2 13.0 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.0 9.5 1.0 60.0 56.4 0.8 5.0 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.2 10.7 0.7 56.0 54.0 8.8 13.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.5 12.5 8.7 0.6 52.9 53.9 7.5 12.1 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.7 11.8 0.5 55.0 52.8 9.1 11.6 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.7 1.2 8.9 0.4 50.8 52.3 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.8 12.9 11.4 0.6 54.8 53.3 8.4 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.3 9.8 0.5 51.4 52.7 8.1 13.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.3 10.8 0.5 53.0 53.0 8.6 13.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.1 12.0 9.7 0.3 50.4 52.1 7.1 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.7 13.2 9.8 0.3 49.2 51.9 9.3 13.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.3 11.1 0.2 51.3 50.7 9.5 13.3 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.7 11.2 1.1 60.2 57.0 9.7 11.5 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.4 13.9 10.1 0.5 53.2 53.1 9.1 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 11.6 0.5 54.8 52.3 8.8 10.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.6 9.2 0.4 50.8 52.0 8.4 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.8 12.1 0.5 54.5 52.8 9.3 12.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.5 6.8 0.3 51.2 51.8 3.8 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.0 12.2 0.7 56.5 53.9 9.0 12.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 11.8 0.5 53.2 52.0 9.5 11.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.7 12.2 0.5 53.1 52.1 9.8 12.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.8 11.1 0.4 51.8 51.6 9.0 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.2 11.0 0.9 58.0 55.2 9.0 12.1 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.2 12.5 8.8 0.3 50.9 51.9 8.5 12.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 11.6 0.8 57.3 54.7 9.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.5 10.2 1.0 59.5 56.4 9.4 12.2 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.2 8.4 0.3 50.5 51.6 2.8 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.1 12.1 0.6 55.7 53.5 9.4 11.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------