***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 10.9 10.8 11.3 1.1 53.4 55.1 8.1 10.5 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.1 10.9 11.5 1.1 54.9 56.0 8.3 10.6 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 11.7 12.4 12.1 1.6 59.9 60.4 8.6 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 2.8 2.5 8.2 1.4 54.5 56.8 0.1 2.3 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 11.8 12.5 10.5 1.9 61.3 62.5 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 10.0 11.3 8.7 2.1 63.9 63.9 6.5 9.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.8 10.6 11.0 0.8 51.2 53.5 8.7 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 2.9 3.4 9.2 2.5 68.2 68.2 -2.0 1.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 13.3 12.9 11.7 2.0 63.8 64.0 8.5 10.9 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.0 13.2 10.2 2.4 66.8 66.7 8.6 11.1 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.5 12.7 11.3 2.3 65.6 66.1 8.5 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.8 9.9 2.3 66.3 66.6 8.2 10.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 12.6 13.0 10.6 2.1 64.2 64.6 9.7 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 14.5 13.7 11.9 2.1 65.7 64.8 9.1 11.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 11.4 11.1 10.4 1.2 50.7 54.1 7.6 11.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 48 52 100 13.3 12.8 10.3 2.1 62.8 63.7 9.0 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 10.8 10.5 10.8 0.8 52.1 54.3 7.4 10.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.2 9.5 2.3 67.5 67.0 8.8 10.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 11.2 12.2 11.8 1.3 57.8 58.3 8.2 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 8.5 9.0 7.5 2.5 71.6 70.6 3.7 6.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 11.7 12.4 12.1 1.7 60.2 61.4 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 11.8 12.1 11.4 1.0 56.1 57.1 8.2 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.1 13.5 12.2 1.7 60.7 61.3 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.6 11.6 2.2 66.2 65.5 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.7 10.7 10.1 1.0 52.9 54.2 7.6 10.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 49 51 100 12.8 12.2 8.7 1.9 63.6 63.9 8.9 11.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 10.8 10.7 10.6 0.8 51.6 53.1 8.7 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 11.6 12.1 9.5 1.6 55.7 58.4 7.9 11.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 9.2 9.4 9.0 2.5 70.1 69.0 3.5 5.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.0 11.1 11.5 1.2 54.7 56.3 8.0 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------