***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.8 4.0 0.5 52.2 54.7 2.5 3.6 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.6 54.9 55.5 2.7 3.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 4.0 0.5 52.4 54.9 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.7 54.1 56.0 -2.0 0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.2 3.2 1.5 0.4 49.5 53.6 2.1 3.3 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.1 -0.6 0.5 48.5 53.4 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 3.8 0.6 53.3 55.6 2.6 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -5.7 -3.2 -0.6 0.3 45.8 52.1 -5.0 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.4 48.4 53.1 2.1 4.3 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.8 0.1 0.3 47.0 52.2 2.4 4.0 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.7 0.8 0.3 47.2 52.5 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 0.3 2.1 0.2 0.3 45.8 52.2 1.1 2.4 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.9 -0.3 0.3 47.1 51.7 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 1.8 0.5 49.7 53.9 2.9 4.1 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.9 2.6 0.8 56.5 57.5 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.1 0.3 0.3 47.3 52.4 3.1 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.9 3.8 0.6 55.3 56.0 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.2 -0.6 0.3 46.6 51.8 0.6 1.6 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.7 3.8 0.5 54.3 55.1 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -2.5 0.0 43.6 49.8 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 3.2 0.5 50.6 54.0 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.0 3.6 0.6 54.8 55.5 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.5 3.6 0.5 53.3 54.6 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.7 1.5 0.5 50.2 53.7 2.0 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.0 2.7 0.6 52.8 54.9 2.2 3.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.7 -0.4 0.2 44.6 51.1 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.4 3.5 0.5 52.6 54.6 3.3 4.4 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.9 1.7 0.8 55.0 56.9 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -1.4 0.5 -1.1 0.2 45.5 51.5 -0.6 0.8 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.2 3.9 0.5 53.8 55.4 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------