***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.6 3.2 0.7 60.8 56.5 0.2 1.0 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -0.3 1.6 3.0 0.7 58.7 56.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.8 3.4 0.8 60.7 58.1 1.8 4.0 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -0.9 0.8 1.1 60.8 59.8 -4.8 -2.4 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.9 59.5 58.7 -0.9 0.1 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 1.1 57.6 60.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.7 58.8 56.1 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -5.1 -4.6 -0.9 1.1 57.5 59.5 -7.7 -6.0 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.9 58.9 58.9 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.6 -0.1 1.0 58.2 59.3 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 1.1 2.0 0.9 1.0 61.1 59.8 -0.1 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 1.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 59.5 60.1 -1.0 -0.7 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 2.3 1.5 0.0 1.0 59.3 60.2 0.1 1.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.5 1.4 1.0 61.2 58.1 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.1 62.7 61.8 0.8 1.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 2.9 1.9 0.5 1.2 61.8 60.7 0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.4 2.3 2.8 0.7 58.5 55.9 0.7 1.5 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 0.7 -0.2 -0.6 1.0 59.7 59.3 -1.1 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -0.2 2.2 3.0 0.7 58.7 56.4 0.1 1.4 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 0.8 58.6 57.4 -4.1 -3.3 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.6 2.8 0.9 60.0 58.8 0.1 1.1 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.4 2.8 0.7 58.9 56.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -0.2 1.3 2.8 0.7 58.4 56.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 59.4 59.3 0.4 1.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.5 2.3 0.8 58.9 57.2 -0.3 1.0 2.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 1.2 1.2 -0.4 1.0 59.3 59.7 0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 2.0 2.2 2.8 0.7 60.1 56.4 -0.4 1.4 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 63.9 61.6 -1.0 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -0.8 -1.5 0.9 57.1 58.1 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.7 59.7 56.7 0.3 1.8 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------