***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 1.1 0.1 1.2 -0.2 40.8 41.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 0.7 0.1 1.3 0.1 42.6 44.7 -0.6 0.6 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 96 4 100 2.4 2.1 1.7 0.2 42.0 43.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 98 2 100 -3.8 -4.9 -1.0 0.2 41.6 42.7 -5.2 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 -0.4 -0.9 0.2 0.3 43.3 44.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 97 3 100 -0.6 -1.0 -2.0 0.6 44.6 45.6 -2.6 -0.6 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 0.5 0.1 1.1 -0.1 41.9 43.5 -0.3 0.5 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 96 4 100 -6.3 -6.5 -1.6 0.9 48.4 50.3 -8.5 -6.5 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 1.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 39.3 40.0 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 1.2 0.3 -1.2 0.5 44.7 45.9 -0.5 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.2 42.7 43.2 -1.1 0.7 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 96 4 100 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 0.7 46.9 48.5 -2.0 -0.9 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 0.6 0.0 -1.0 0.3 44.8 45.3 -1.0 0.6 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.6 44.9 46.2 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 1.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 38.8 39.3 -0.2 1.4 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 97 3 100 1.2 0.4 -0.6 0.5 44.7 45.8 -0.3 1.2 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.0 43.6 44.7 -0.1 0.8 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 1.0 50.5 50.6 -2.2 -0.6 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 0.8 0.2 1.4 0.2 42.9 45.1 -0.3 0.7 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 96 4 100 -3.3 -2.5 -2.2 1.3 57.7 58.2 -4.9 -3.3 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 40.7 41.1 -0.6 0.2 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 0.6 -0.1 1.3 0.0 43.4 44.3 -0.4 0.4 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 96 4 100 0.6 -0.1 1.3 0.3 43.6 45.5 -0.6 0.5 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 44.7 45.2 -0.4 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 97 3 100 0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.1 42.9 43.2 -0.4 0.2 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 98 2 100 0.3 0.3 -1.1 0.8 49.9 50.3 -1.1 0.3 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 97 3 100 0.6 0.3 0.9 -0.3 42.1 42.5 -0.6 0.5 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 96 4 100 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 0.2 41.5 42.5 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 96 4 100 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 1.1 52.3 53.1 -3.9 -2.5 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.1 42.6 44.0 -0.1 0.4 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------