***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 37.8 40.8 60.1 127.0 73.2 66.5 17.2 24.1 32.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 31.5 31.9 51.6 112.1 65.1 59.1 15.9 27.5 32.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 54.2 55.0 59.0 122.0 70.9 64.6 19.3 32.5 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 48.5 51.5 68.4 117.8 70.4 61.2 26.8 36.5 48.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 43.0 47.8 69.4 122.2 72.8 64.3 28.5 34.7 40.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 44.5 51.9 77.9 124.4 78.9 65.4 23.3 34.0 44.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 27.9 33.6 52.2 113.3 68.4 59.4 16.5 25.0 33.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 75.4 79.3 76.5 128.2 77.8 68.3 51.0 65.6 70.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 34.2 51.6 69.2 123.9 73.4 65.1 20.0 29.4 45.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 58.8 67.6 76.1 126.0 75.6 67.4 27.4 33.7 54.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 49.9 58.4 67.5 127.9 77.7 67.4 23.6 33.8 52.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 55.3 64.7 67.3 130.8 77.9 68.4 24.2 35.5 45.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 52.0 56.9 75.6 133.7 82.6 71.1 30.0 40.5 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 62.1 60.7 72.5 116.7 70.6 62.0 33.2 46.8 59.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 38.3 36.1 61.9 112.0 61.5 57.4 21.9 32.8 47.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 44.9 51.8 70.0 129.6 79.6 67.6 27.1 32.8 40.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.3 29.2 48.3 107.8 61.6 56.5 16.9 24.5 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 45.7 50.1 81.4 122.7 72.3 65.7 27.9 32.4 45.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 34.9 40.7 53.2 113.4 65.9 60.1 19.1 29.6 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 47.5 52.6 94.8 123.8 72.9 66.3 24.6 32.6 46.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 44.4 53.2 64.1 127.1 74.2 66.5 20.1 28.1 40.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 30.9 29.7 49.4 106.0 60.7 56.0 21.0 26.8 31.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 42.6 45.7 57.6 116.1 68.4 61.4 20.1 26.3 41.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 57.4 59.2 71.8 120.4 70.6 64.3 33.2 44.9 57.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 40.1 46.0 71.6 125.7 74.0 65.9 23.3 29.2 37.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 41.1 47.7 75.4 136.0 79.4 72.0 21.1 33.3 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 36.9 40.1 67.4 125.7 73.9 66.1 20.5 27.1 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 31.6 39.4 65.3 115.4 66.2 59.1 15.9 28.0 39.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 75.0 84.6 85.0 122.2 72.5 65.6 35.8 52.3 77.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 36.5 40.2 54.1 116.5 69.2 61.8 16.4 24.4 37.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------