***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.0 9.5 81.5 54.2 45.6 1.3 3.3 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.4 8.8 75.1 48.6 44.2 1.3 3.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.6 9.6 83.3 53.9 45.5 2.3 4.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.3 8.7 11.3 82.2 48.6 43.6 4.9 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.5 11.5 87.6 51.0 45.0 3.4 7.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.1 15.9 100.0 53.2 48.2 3.7 5.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.0 1.9 8.9 74.0 49.6 44.2 0.4 1.9 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.0 14.9 13.9 100.2 57.7 49.3 5.4 12.0 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.4 11.4 88.0 52.1 45.1 2.8 4.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.8 13.4 95.0 56.2 47.7 2.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.6 11.5 95.3 57.5 47.3 3.4 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.0 11.9 101.2 59.2 49.3 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.6 13.6 103.8 60.0 50.0 3.4 4.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.0 12.6 83.6 54.3 46.0 2.2 3.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.5 10.1 74.4 47.9 41.9 2.7 4.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.1 12.0 96.8 56.1 47.8 2.8 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 1.9 8.3 71.1 44.9 43.0 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.9 14.8 94.4 54.4 48.3 1.0 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.0 8.9 77.0 50.2 44.6 0.6 2.0 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.8 18.1 100.7 57.0 50.3 3.7 5.2 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.7 10.2 87.2 53.3 45.6 1.9 5.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.6 4.1 8.5 71.4 46.7 43.1 1.2 4.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.2 9.7 80.6 52.2 45.6 2.2 3.8 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.7 12.5 88.3 55.2 46.7 2.0 3.7 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 6.9 11.8 87.3 53.5 46.6 3.8 6.6 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.7 13.5 105.1 63.5 51.0 2.0 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.6 11.2 84.3 53.2 46.4 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.7 11.0 81.1 49.8 43.2 3.5 4.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 15.9 95.9 55.5 49.2 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.6 9.0 77.4 50.5 44.8 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------