***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 13.5 18.0 15.6 147.6 76.5 63.9 1.3 5.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.4 11.2 13.9 130.2 69.7 60.7 2.2 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 14.6 19.8 15.8 143.4 75.0 63.3 2.3 5.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 13.3 16.1 120.6 70.2 57.3 2.8 6.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 14.1 16.8 124.9 70.2 57.4 2.0 4.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.6 16.5 19.9 119.0 67.5 55.0 1.5 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.5 11.2 13.8 126.8 68.8 59.3 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.1 19.1 18.6 119.3 66.8 54.2 8.5 14.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.6 12.9 17.5 130.4 73.2 59.0 1.3 4.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 17.1 19.0 125.2 70.1 56.9 1.8 6.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.5 14.2 16.3 123.1 67.0 55.3 0.6 4.1 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.8 16.0 15.9 116.9 67.6 53.1 1.4 5.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.6 15.7 17.9 117.4 67.4 53.9 2.4 9.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.5 28.0 20.6 139.5 75.7 62.7 4.9 13.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 12.6 14.5 114.5 69.0 56.6 1.2 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.9 15.0 16.7 121.5 69.5 54.8 1.5 7.9 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.9 13.3 13.5 130.5 70.4 59.3 3.2 6.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.9 21.6 129.4 72.8 59.3 3.5 7.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.4 15.3 14.6 136.2 72.9 62.2 2.2 7.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 16.9 25.1 130.0 69.8 58.6 4.9 10.8 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.5 13.1 16.4 140.4 74.8 62.5 3.2 5.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.6 14.2 139.7 73.5 61.0 3.4 7.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 17.2 18.8 16.0 142.2 76.1 63.4 2.7 9.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.5 24.1 19.5 135.9 75.4 61.2 4.3 10.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.1 17.9 136.6 72.9 62.3 2.0 6.4 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.7 10.5 16.7 110.8 63.7 52.4 1.6 4.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.2 15.4 17.4 141.9 74.1 62.5 2.5 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.4 12.5 15.4 116.4 69.9 55.7 0.5 2.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 20.9 23.1 132.9 72.6 59.9 5.9 11.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.4 8.7 14.4 134.6 71.9 61.5 2.0 4.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------