***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.3 10.0 76.4 49.4 43.7 1.9 3.4 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.8 10.4 87.7 56.7 47.2 0.8 2.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.2 11.2 84.0 53.3 46.7 2.8 4.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 6.6 13.0 76.8 47.9 44.1 3.5 7.0 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.6 8.4 13.9 85.6 48.9 47.2 4.1 8.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.0 17.8 103.0 61.0 51.1 2.6 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.5 4.1 10.6 87.6 55.5 46.9 0.9 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.9 16.1 98.5 53.7 49.9 8.6 14.4 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.4 14.4 91.9 53.6 49.9 4.1 6.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 13.6 16.0 96.5 54.4 50.7 5.3 10.8 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.8 13.6 91.1 52.6 48.8 3.5 7.3 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.0 14.1 98.0 56.2 49.4 4.2 6.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.4 16.3 103.8 61.8 51.3 3.8 6.4 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.0 15.5 95.4 55.7 50.5 3.7 5.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.6 1.1 11.9 71.8 45.8 41.2 0.4 1.4 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.3 14.6 94.9 56.2 49.5 3.9 6.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.6 3.0 9.9 87.5 56.2 47.3 0.4 1.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 17.8 99.0 56.8 51.6 3.6 7.8 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.9 10.7 87.9 54.6 47.6 1.1 2.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.2 20.4 97.6 55.9 50.0 3.9 8.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.2 12.4 87.8 54.1 48.4 3.8 7.0 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 1.9 9.9 84.5 53.6 46.6 0.7 1.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.0 11.7 90.4 52.8 49.2 1.4 2.4 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 15.5 95.2 55.1 50.3 4.1 9.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.5 13.1 80.4 47.9 44.8 2.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.2 15.4 103.7 60.3 49.6 2.7 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.0 12.1 80.5 49.4 44.9 1.9 4.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.4 1.9 12.8 76.8 48.1 43.8 0.8 3.2 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.4 18.7 99.3 59.4 51.5 5.0 16.4 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.6 10.5 84.8 56.5 46.5 1.2 3.0 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------