***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 6.5 22.0 24.9 208.8 89.7 80.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.0 7.1 18.5 156.9 79.6 68.1 0.8 1.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 10.6 19.5 22.4 179.7 83.5 74.1 1.0 4.8 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 11.8 14.1 28.1 199.1 85.5 80.0 3.6 6.6 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 9.7 12.9 27.2 195.2 84.7 80.0 0.9 4.5 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.6 21.9 24.3 190.8 87.9 80.1 0.9 3.6 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.9 10.0 19.0 170.0 82.5 71.9 0.8 2.4 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 20.2 27.5 27.9 201.2 90.4 82.8 6.5 13.1 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 9.3 13.4 25.8 187.9 84.5 78.2 0.6 3.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 14.3 17.5 27.7 190.6 86.5 79.5 1.0 3.9 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 10.3 19.0 26.2 208.1 88.3 82.8 1.5 3.6 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.4 15.1 25.5 215.7 91.3 84.7 0.6 3.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 12.0 38.2 27.9 221.6 93.8 86.6 2.3 5.4 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.5 20.0 23.7 148.9 74.5 66.4 2.7 3.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 10.1 21.9 25.4 203.8 87.4 79.0 1.3 3.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 13.4 21.4 26.6 215.3 90.9 84.6 2.1 6.3 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.2 6.1 16.6 144.7 75.4 65.6 0.8 1.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.4 20.9 27.3 170.2 82.1 73.9 1.2 3.8 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 9.0 11.7 19.0 152.8 77.9 66.6 1.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 8.9 11.8 31.2 169.3 84.9 75.7 0.9 3.4 6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 10.0 21.5 25.0 194.2 85.7 78.3 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 2.6 5.7 16.8 131.2 71.3 62.0 0.7 1.3 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 10.6 12.5 20.2 150.6 75.2 66.0 0.3 2.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 14.5 19.2 24.3 163.7 78.6 71.2 1.1 4.7 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 7.7 27.4 28.8 204.9 90.8 80.3 1.0 3.4 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 10.1 20.6 29.8 234.9 94.0 89.1 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 6.4 26.7 26.7 204.0 90.5 80.1 0.5 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 9.8 21.7 26.1 200.0 86.5 79.6 1.6 4.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 15.0 21.9 27.3 162.9 81.3 72.0 3.9 6.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.7 13.8 20.2 172.2 84.5 71.8 0.9 2.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------