***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.4 12.3 0.7 61.3 60.2 11.7 13.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.7 12.2 0.6 61.2 59.0 11.8 13.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.0 12.3 0.6 59.3 58.9 12.1 13.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 5.4 6.2 10.5 1.0 66.2 63.9 4.1 5.0 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.6 10.8 0.8 61.3 60.5 12.2 13.5 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.3 13.4 9.2 1.0 64.1 61.9 11.0 11.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.2 12.1 0.6 60.7 59.7 11.4 12.8 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.6 2.6 9.2 0.6 60.4 58.2 0.8 2.2 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.3 11.3 0.7 60.1 59.0 12.1 13.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.3 10.0 0.6 59.3 57.9 11.9 13.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.3 10.5 0.7 60.9 59.6 11.9 13.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.8 10.1 0.7 60.7 58.9 11.5 12.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.7 9.9 0.7 60.3 58.5 12.2 13.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.3 11.1 0.5 58.1 56.0 12.2 13.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 14.1 14.9 11.4 1.3 70.2 67.0 12.1 12.9 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.1 15.1 10.3 0.8 61.9 60.5 12.4 13.7 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.9 11.9 0.6 60.9 58.6 11.0 12.4 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.9 9.3 0.5 58.7 56.5 11.5 12.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.8 12.3 0.6 60.6 58.7 11.7 13.4 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.1 9.1 6.8 0.5 57.6 56.1 6.9 7.5 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.5 11.9 0.7 60.3 59.4 12.4 13.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.6 12.0 0.5 60.5 58.0 11.8 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.0 12.2 0.6 59.5 58.0 12.1 13.9 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.2 11.0 0.5 58.4 56.7 12.3 13.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.8 10.9 0.8 63.4 61.7 11.7 13.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.9 9.4 0.7 60.4 60.0 11.7 12.6 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.6 11.5 0.7 61.5 60.6 12.0 12.9 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.6 14.4 11.0 1.1 67.1 64.6 12.2 13.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.9 8.3 0.5 58.5 55.9 7.1 7.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.5 12.3 0.6 60.4 59.4 11.5 13.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------