***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.3 13.6 0.3 53.8 51.7 14.7 15.7 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.1 13.6 0.3 53.6 52.1 15.4 17.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.3 13.7 0.3 53.8 52.1 15.4 17.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.9 11.8 0.2 53.3 51.3 6.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 12.0 0.2 50.4 50.9 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.0 10.3 0.3 51.1 51.6 13.7 14.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.7 13.4 0.2 52.2 51.4 15.2 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.1 10.5 0.3 50.4 51.5 2.9 4.0 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.9 16.6 12.5 0.2 49.7 50.9 14.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.5 11.2 0.2 49.7 51.2 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.4 11.7 0.2 48.4 51.3 14.7 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.5 11.4 0.2 48.0 51.0 14.3 15.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.3 10.9 0.2 49.1 50.7 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 12.4 0.3 52.0 51.7 15.5 16.9 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 12.1 0.2 52.8 51.9 14.0 16.0 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.8 11.4 0.2 48.9 50.9 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.0 13.3 0.3 53.5 51.8 14.4 16.0 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.1 10.6 0.3 52.5 51.3 14.9 16.0 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.9 13.7 0.3 54.9 52.5 15.3 16.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 8.2 0.4 56.3 51.9 9.6 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.9 13.2 0.3 51.8 51.3 15.2 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 13.4 0.3 53.8 52.7 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.4 13.7 0.4 55.1 52.6 15.5 17.0 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.9 12.3 0.3 52.2 51.6 15.4 16.7 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.0 16.3 12.1 0.2 53.4 51.1 14.9 15.9 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 10.7 0.2 48.9 50.8 14.4 15.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.7 12.8 0.3 52.3 51.2 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.1 12.0 0.2 52.2 51.6 13.5 16.0 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 9.6 0.3 54.1 51.5 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.8 13.7 0.3 53.3 52.0 15.3 16.6 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------