***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.3 12.4 1.4 67.4 61.8 9.3 11.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 12.3 1.3 64.7 61.6 9.9 10.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.2 12.5 1.4 65.7 61.0 9.6 12.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.7 10.8 1.8 66.6 63.3 1.2 4.1 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.2 14.1 11.0 1.6 63.9 61.1 9.1 12.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.5 9.3 1.4 59.2 58.9 7.4 11.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.9 12.2 1.3 64.4 61.6 9.4 10.7 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.0 9.5 1.4 57.3 59.9 -1.1 0.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.4 11.5 1.5 61.7 60.3 8.6 12.4 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.4 10.3 1.4 58.5 59.7 8.4 12.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.6 10.7 1.5 59.8 60.0 8.9 12.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.8 10.4 1.4 56.7 59.2 7.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.2 9.9 1.3 55.1 58.2 8.8 12.9 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.0 11.4 1.3 61.4 60.0 9.8 12.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 15.4 11.2 1.9 68.7 64.9 10.1 11.5 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.0 10.4 1.4 59.7 59.5 9.1 13.4 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.7 12.0 1.3 64.9 61.7 9.2 10.1 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.6 9.6 1.4 58.2 59.2 8.7 12.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.3 12.5 1.3 65.7 61.4 9.5 11.0 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.2 7.2 1.3 58.3 59.5 3.9 6.8 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.9 14.9 12.1 1.5 65.3 61.0 9.1 12.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.2 15.6 12.2 1.3 67.1 61.8 10.0 10.8 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 14.4 14.1 12.5 1.3 65.6 60.8 9.8 11.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.9 11.3 1.4 61.8 59.7 9.9 12.2 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 14.0 14.4 11.0 1.6 67.2 63.0 9.7 11.4 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.1 12.7 9.6 1.2 54.4 57.8 8.3 12.5 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.4 11.6 1.5 66.6 62.5 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.9 15.4 11.1 1.8 65.6 63.0 10.0 12.1 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 7.7 7.1 8.6 1.3 57.2 59.0 3.2 6.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 12.4 1.3 65.5 61.5 9.5 10.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------