***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 11.0 10.7 10.8 1.0 54.5 56.7 8.5 10.6 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.4 10.7 0.8 55.2 55.4 8.0 11.1 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 12.0 11.6 10.6 0.5 51.2 52.9 8.5 11.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 3.1 3.8 8.7 1.6 57.2 59.5 -0.7 2.7 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 11.6 11.5 9.3 0.9 53.0 54.5 8.0 11.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.8 8.0 1.5 62.8 61.2 6.8 9.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.6 10.8 1.0 57.2 57.3 8.2 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 1.0 1.2 7.3 0.4 51.1 53.0 -1.3 0.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 11.6 11.2 10.0 0.6 51.7 52.3 8.4 11.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 11.7 11.3 8.3 0.3 48.6 50.9 8.4 11.3 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 11.6 11.4 9.1 0.7 51.8 53.7 7.9 11.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 10.9 11.0 8.3 0.7 53.2 54.4 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 11.6 11.7 8.8 0.8 54.8 54.9 9.6 11.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 11.0 9.2 -0.2 45.4 48.3 8.2 12.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 11.6 12.1 11.3 2.3 62.1 64.8 6.4 11.2 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 11.8 12.1 9.1 1.1 54.4 56.5 9.0 11.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.3 10.3 0.8 55.1 55.7 6.7 10.7 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 11.5 10.3 7.3 0.0 46.9 49.2 8.0 10.8 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 11.6 11.6 10.6 0.6 53.4 53.8 7.3 11.1 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 6.2 5.8 5.0 -0.1 48.2 49.6 4.0 5.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 11.9 11.7 10.5 0.6 51.9 52.9 8.8 11.5 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 12.2 12.4 10.3 0.5 53.8 53.3 7.1 11.9 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.4 10.3 0.3 50.6 52.0 8.0 12.4 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.4 9.1 0.0 47.4 49.3 8.9 11.7 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.7 11.5 9.8 1.2 54.8 58.2 6.9 10.3 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 11.3 11.3 7.8 1.1 58.8 58.9 9.4 11.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.3 10.4 1.1 55.4 57.7 8.9 10.8 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 12.0 11.9 9.9 1.8 57.6 60.4 6.6 11.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 6.4 5.6 6.4 -0.1 48.5 49.5 3.4 5.7 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.4 10.8 0.8 55.8 55.6 7.7 11.0 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------