***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.3 72.5 70.0 1.6 2.6 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 3.2 3.3 3.6 1.1 70.8 68.0 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.7 3.7 1.2 71.5 70.1 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -0.6 -0.2 1.7 1.8 78.3 75.3 -2.6 -1.8 -0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.5 2.8 1.8 1.6 76.2 73.3 0.8 1.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 1.4 1.4 -0.2 1.9 75.1 74.5 0.0 0.8 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 3.5 3.5 3.6 1.2 72.4 69.0 1.7 2.6 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -3.4 -3.1 -0.1 1.7 73.1 71.7 -5.8 -5.0 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 3.4 3.5 2.2 1.5 74.1 71.8 1.5 2.8 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 3.2 3.4 0.6 1.6 72.6 71.0 1.7 2.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 3.0 3.2 1.3 1.6 76.8 72.9 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 1.8 2.0 0.9 1.6 75.3 73.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 2.6 2.5 0.5 1.6 74.2 73.5 1.1 2.3 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 3.6 3.6 1.8 1.2 69.1 67.9 2.1 2.9 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 3.4 3.6 2.7 1.9 79.4 78.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 3.8 4.0 1.0 1.7 76.2 74.3 2.0 3.1 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 3.4 3.5 3.4 1.0 69.7 66.5 1.7 2.6 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 1.1 1.1 -0.2 1.5 68.3 68.8 -0.3 0.7 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 3.2 3.3 3.5 1.1 70.4 68.0 1.4 2.4 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -1.4 -1.5 -2.3 1.5 69.1 68.5 -3.2 -2.0 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 3.0 3.1 3.3 1.4 73.1 71.2 1.5 2.6 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 2.9 2.8 3.4 1.0 69.2 66.0 1.0 2.1 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.7 3.2 1.1 69.9 68.5 1.4 2.1 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 3.0 3.1 1.8 1.4 69.2 69.3 1.6 2.5 3.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 3.3 3.5 2.7 1.6 76.3 73.6 1.6 2.6 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 2.5 2.7 0.5 1.5 74.8 71.9 0.9 1.8 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 3.4 3.5 3.3 1.4 73.9 71.4 2.0 2.8 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 78.5 76.1 -0.1 1.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 0.5 0.4 -1.0 1.4 67.6 67.7 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.6 3.8 1.2 71.8 69.0 1.8 2.8 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------