***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.2 4.4 0.2 50.5 52.8 3.4 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.3 4.2 0.2 50.5 52.7 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.7 4.2 0.2 53.9 54.0 5.8 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.3 55.7 55.5 -0.6 0.6 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.4 1.8 0.2 52.4 53.9 2.2 3.0 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.6 -0.3 0.3 54.3 55.2 1.4 2.1 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.1 4.2 0.2 51.1 52.8 3.4 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.9 0.0 0.3 51.1 54.9 -4.2 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.6 2.3 0.1 49.2 53.3 2.9 3.6 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.0 0.7 0.2 49.9 54.0 2.9 4.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 50.6 53.5 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.3 50.2 54.5 1.3 2.8 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.4 0.5 0.3 50.5 54.4 2.1 3.4 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.0 2.3 0.1 54.8 53.4 3.7 4.6 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.3 2.6 0.4 58.6 56.7 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.6 1.0 0.2 52.9 54.2 3.3 4.4 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.0 0.1 49.9 51.9 3.8 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.6 0.1 0.3 51.3 54.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.1 4.1 0.2 51.9 52.8 3.3 4.0 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -0.7 -2.0 0.5 54.2 55.9 -1.6 -1.2 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.1 3.5 0.2 50.7 53.7 3.0 4.1 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.6 4.0 0.1 49.6 52.0 3.0 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.7 3.7 0.2 54.4 53.2 2.9 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.3 2.1 0.2 53.0 54.1 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.5 2.8 0.3 53.3 54.1 3.9 4.4 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.3 48.2 54.2 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.2 3.6 0.2 50.7 52.9 3.8 5.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.8 2.2 0.3 56.7 56.0 1.6 2.3 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.1 -0.7 0.3 50.5 54.1 -0.1 1.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.6 4.3 0.2 51.7 53.1 3.6 4.6 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------