***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.3 3.9 0.9 62.3 59.7 2.4 3.4 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.6 3.6 0.7 60.0 57.8 2.1 3.1 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.1 3.7 0.9 63.7 59.9 4.2 5.5 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.2 0.6 1.4 1.1 64.5 61.6 -2.3 -0.8 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.5 1.4 1.0 62.9 60.4 1.4 3.2 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.7 -0.7 1.0 62.2 60.9 0.4 2.3 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.6 3.6 0.8 58.8 58.2 2.5 3.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.4 -0.5 0.9 58.9 59.4 -5.5 -3.1 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.2 1.9 1.0 62.4 60.0 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.1 0.3 1.0 60.4 59.9 2.1 3.3 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 63.4 60.1 2.4 3.5 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.9 0.6 1.0 63.3 60.2 0.8 2.2 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 3.4 4.1 0.2 1.1 64.4 61.1 1.1 3.1 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.2 1.8 0.8 59.7 58.7 3.1 3.9 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.5 2.1 1.1 67.0 62.4 2.3 3.0 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.7 0.6 1.0 63.8 61.0 2.5 4.0 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.2 3.4 0.6 56.7 56.3 2.2 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.1 -0.4 1.0 57.9 59.6 0.7 1.6 2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.0 3.6 0.7 60.4 58.0 2.4 3.2 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -0.8 -2.6 0.9 55.6 58.9 -2.4 -1.3 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.2 3.1 1.0 64.5 60.1 2.0 3.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.2 3.4 0.6 57.8 56.6 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.7 3.3 0.8 61.1 58.9 1.6 3.0 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.8 1.6 0.9 61.2 59.6 1.9 3.3 4.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.5 2.3 1.0 64.5 61.3 2.1 3.3 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.5 0.3 0.9 60.3 60.7 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.6 3.1 1.0 63.1 60.1 2.2 3.7 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.6 3.5 1.6 1.0 64.0 61.3 0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.9 1.1 -1.2 0.8 55.3 58.3 -1.6 0.5 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.5 3.8 0.8 61.3 58.7 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------