***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 1.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 61.6 61.8 -0.1 0.6 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.7 3.5 1.4 62.5 64.6 0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 3.8 4.4 3.4 1.3 63.4 63.8 1.6 3.4 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -2.7 0.0 1.4 1.8 68.0 68.2 -4.5 -3.1 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 62.4 64.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 1.7 64.9 65.0 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 1.4 2.1 3.5 1.4 62.9 64.5 0.2 0.9 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -3.8 -4.0 -0.4 1.6 62.5 63.5 -7.4 -5.2 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 61.9 62.6 -0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.9 0.2 1.4 61.0 62.4 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 1.1 2.1 0.8 1.5 63.7 63.2 -0.5 0.7 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.6 65.4 63.7 -1.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 1.9 1.3 0.1 1.4 64.9 62.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 2.0 2.6 1.7 1.4 64.9 63.9 1.0 1.6 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.9 71.6 70.5 0.5 1.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 1.6 2.2 0.6 1.5 66.4 63.9 0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 1.7 1.9 3.4 1.5 63.3 65.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 1.4 59.4 61.7 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.2 3.4 1.4 63.4 64.4 0.2 1.1 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 1.3 55.0 60.6 -4.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 1.3 1.7 2.8 1.3 60.9 62.8 -0.3 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 2.2 2.3 3.4 1.5 67.2 65.4 -0.5 1.0 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.8 3.1 1.4 66.8 64.3 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.5 64.8 63.9 -0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.6 65.3 65.5 0.1 0.9 1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 1.6 1.3 0.2 1.4 66.8 62.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 1.8 2.6 2.9 1.4 61.9 63.0 -0.7 1.4 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.8 70.1 68.9 -0.8 -0.1 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.4 58.4 60.7 -3.5 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 1.8 1.7 3.6 1.4 62.2 63.8 0.1 1.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------