***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 2.6 3.2 4.0 2.9 80.5 77.7 -0.7 0.8 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 1.6 2.4 3.1 2.1 71.4 69.4 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.5 5.5 3.6 2.6 76.3 73.6 1.1 2.5 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 -1.3 0.6 2.2 3.9 89.4 87.0 -5.3 -3.8 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 2.1 2.8 2.6 3.8 88.0 85.1 -1.4 0.1 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.1 0.7 4.5 89.3 88.3 -2.2 -1.0 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.5 3.3 2.4 74.1 71.9 -0.6 0.4 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -3.1 -2.7 0.4 3.8 81.4 81.5 -8.4 -6.9 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 2.9 4.5 2.8 3.5 88.1 83.9 -0.2 1.0 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 3.0 3.5 1.2 3.6 82.9 81.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 2.6 3.4 2.1 3.8 87.9 85.9 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 1.2 1.6 1.4 3.8 85.8 84.5 -2.0 -0.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 2.0 2.6 1.3 3.8 89.4 86.7 -0.7 0.2 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 2.9 2.9 1.7 2.4 72.1 70.7 -0.3 1.5 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.0 3.9 4.2 95.3 92.1 -0.5 0.9 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 3.5 4.2 1.8 4.0 90.2 87.9 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 49 51 100 1.9 2.7 2.7 1.9 66.9 66.7 -0.6 0.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 0.5 0.7 0.2 3.3 78.9 76.8 -2.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.0 71.6 68.9 -0.3 0.7 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 3.2 75.3 73.9 -5.3 -4.0 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 2.1 3.4 3.8 3.1 83.2 79.1 -0.7 0.5 1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 0.7 1.4 2.6 1.6 61.7 63.5 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 1.5 2.0 2.8 2.1 71.3 69.1 -0.7 0.4 1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.9 76.6 74.3 -0.6 0.7 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 2.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 86.9 82.2 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 2.1 2.4 0.6 3.4 85.1 82.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.2 83.4 79.5 -0.6 0.5 1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 1.2 2.6 2.8 4.0 91.5 88.9 -1.7 -0.3 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 0.3 0.9 -0.7 3.3 78.0 75.7 -4.0 -2.3 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 2.1 2.9 3.4 2.3 73.8 71.9 -0.3 0.5 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------