***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 17.6 28.3 59.1 107.9 59.9 53.9 16.5 24.1 32.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 15.4 29.6 50.9 107.0 58.6 54.9 15.9 25.8 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 40.1 42.6 61.5 113.2 62.7 57.5 17.4 32.5 50.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 44.3 46.7 73.9 116.4 64.2 59.7 26.5 40.0 48.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 38.7 45.1 73.9 119.1 67.6 61.8 28.7 35.5 44.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 45.3 45.4 76.4 115.3 68.1 61.1 23.7 35.5 44.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.9 31.0 49.8 106.9 59.9 54.9 16.5 25.0 32.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 80.5 83.0 85.2 128.0 75.7 67.9 50.0 65.6 76.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.0 44.2 74.8 120.8 67.1 63.2 20.0 31.1 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 59.0 65.2 86.7 126.9 74.0 67.4 28.3 36.3 54.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 52.8 56.1 76.9 124.1 73.3 65.5 25.9 39.4 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 54.5 57.2 74.4 123.4 72.0 64.8 25.5 35.5 45.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 52.1 55.2 80.0 118.9 71.0 62.5 33.5 43.4 53.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 62.7 66.1 83.2 121.6 74.5 63.2 33.1 45.8 60.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 39.5 46.8 69.1 118.3 64.7 60.0 22.2 33.8 47.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 38.0 42.0 75.2 118.3 67.9 61.8 29.0 34.3 40.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 16.4 28.2 47.1 103.5 58.2 53.9 16.2 23.7 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 45.5 50.9 89.7 125.4 73.5 66.7 27.9 32.4 40.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 36.2 32.3 53.6 108.4 59.1 55.5 17.9 29.8 39.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 48.2 55.0 100.0 124.2 74.5 67.0 25.4 34.3 46.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 33.7 43.3 67.9 116.6 65.3 59.8 20.9 28.1 43.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 19.3 28.6 50.0 103.4 56.7 53.3 20.5 27.0 32.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 36.5 39.2 59.6 111.9 62.5 57.3 20.4 31.5 41.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 59.7 60.3 79.3 122.8 72.1 64.0 33.9 43.6 57.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.4 34.1 68.9 110.4 60.6 54.9 23.2 29.2 37.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 42.6 41.7 75.0 117.4 70.6 61.8 22.4 33.6 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 17.6 34.6 62.3 108.4 60.6 53.6 20.5 24.1 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 36.7 41.3 73.0 118.3 66.2 60.9 16.8 33.2 41.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 76.8 81.5 92.7 124.6 73.7 66.5 35.9 54.2 76.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 17.6 32.8 53.0 107.5 58.8 54.4 17.9 28.4 37.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------