***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.8 77.4 45.6 40.3 2.6 4.1 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.7 10.4 85.5 51.9 43.1 1.2 3.5 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.5 76.1 48.6 41.5 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.3 10.3 13.4 83.8 51.3 43.9 5.8 9.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.9 13.0 83.0 48.5 43.6 3.4 6.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.9 16.5 91.3 52.8 46.4 4.3 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.3 3.9 10.3 86.6 52.7 42.4 1.6 2.9 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.9 16.8 16.1 96.0 56.4 47.5 5.4 13.0 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.9 4.9 13.1 81.0 48.0 42.8 1.8 5.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.8 15.3 87.2 51.7 44.9 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.4 13.5 87.9 53.5 44.5 2.8 4.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.3 14.6 96.9 57.7 47.3 4.3 6.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.0 15.8 92.2 53.8 46.0 4.2 8.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.4 14.5 82.3 47.9 44.7 3.7 5.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.8 12.7 83.8 52.7 44.1 3.2 5.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.8 14.4 88.7 53.4 45.2 2.7 6.6 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 10.9 93.2 57.3 45.3 1.6 4.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.0 15.9 86.9 51.7 45.3 1.1 6.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.4 10.6 83.3 50.3 43.3 1.3 4.3 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.5 19.0 92.5 55.9 47.2 3.9 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.9 11.5 77.4 44.6 41.9 1.8 5.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.6 12.0 95.5 56.1 45.9 2.8 4.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.2 11.0 79.9 49.6 43.4 2.7 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.2 13.6 82.6 49.8 44.4 2.7 4.2 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.9 7.5 12.7 81.4 46.0 41.7 4.7 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.5 16.3 100.8 57.8 48.0 2.8 5.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.2 11.8 81.1 46.6 40.9 2.1 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.8 13.7 85.9 54.1 44.4 3.0 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.6 16.4 86.4 52.4 44.9 4.2 8.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.6 10.1 80.6 49.7 41.7 1.8 3.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------