***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.5 5.2 14.2 99.3 61.0 48.1 1.0 2.8 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.2 11.2 91.3 55.9 45.7 1.8 3.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 9.0 14.2 99.8 59.3 47.6 2.0 4.1 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.6 18.7 118.7 66.2 51.3 3.4 5.0 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.3 8.3 18.3 117.9 65.7 51.1 2.6 5.1 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.3 19.2 119.9 64.9 55.8 1.6 3.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.6 11.1 91.3 55.4 46.0 1.7 4.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 16.6 17.6 110.0 61.4 50.8 7.3 11.6 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.7 9.4 18.6 115.8 66.7 50.8 1.5 3.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.7 18.9 111.6 63.4 50.2 1.9 5.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.3 8.1 17.3 114.3 64.3 51.1 1.4 2.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.5 16.2 110.3 61.9 51.6 1.7 5.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.2 18.3 112.7 62.5 52.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.5 15.3 18.1 103.2 59.6 49.3 4.7 12.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.5 13.0 18.3 124.5 70.2 52.2 1.0 3.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.4 18.1 116.1 64.6 52.6 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.1 10.1 86.2 53.4 44.2 2.9 7.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.7 19.0 105.1 59.8 48.9 3.7 5.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.4 12.1 94.8 57.7 46.9 1.6 5.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.0 19.7 102.6 56.7 49.1 4.0 8.9 15.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.2 16.8 111.2 65.0 50.2 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.4 11.1 88.6 55.0 45.5 2.7 5.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.1 13.6 99.4 60.0 48.4 2.0 4.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.6 17.6 105.1 60.5 48.8 4.0 9.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.4 16.8 106.1 61.2 48.7 1.3 3.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.8 16.6 108.4 62.4 52.4 1.6 3.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.1 15.1 101.4 60.5 48.3 2.1 2.8 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.2 10.6 18.9 124.0 68.5 53.1 0.7 2.4 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 12.2 19.2 104.6 58.3 49.1 4.7 9.8 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.2 12.1 93.0 56.7 46.5 2.5 3.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------