***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.5 15.1 115.5 63.3 55.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.8 12.9 109.7 61.7 53.1 0.7 2.0 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.3 15.5 118.0 67.1 56.8 1.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.7 17.4 123.0 67.3 57.5 4.4 6.1 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.0 11.4 17.6 130.7 71.2 61.0 3.1 7.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.1 17.2 119.1 66.4 57.0 1.5 4.9 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.3 4.4 12.8 111.9 64.1 53.5 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.9 16.7 112.6 63.8 55.6 9.1 15.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.5 11.1 17.4 125.2 70.5 60.3 3.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.2 16.9 115.1 65.5 56.7 4.5 7.6 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.5 12.7 16.7 119.8 68.3 57.4 2.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.4 16.4 118.2 64.6 57.5 4.0 5.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.1 16.2 114.0 63.4 55.5 3.6 4.6 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 11.1 12.7 18.5 114.6 67.3 59.5 2.5 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 4.1 15.1 115.3 63.5 54.9 0.1 1.7 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.8 16.9 119.9 67.6 57.9 3.5 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 2.5 3.1 12.0 107.3 60.7 53.8 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.3 17.9 112.0 63.9 57.5 3.0 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.6 13.4 110.4 62.7 54.0 1.0 1.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.0 19.1 99.3 57.6 52.5 3.6 7.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.0 16.8 124.0 68.7 59.5 2.1 6.8 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.8 11.9 100.7 59.2 52.7 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.1 14.9 113.0 64.0 56.3 0.5 2.3 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 14.1 11.6 17.8 117.5 67.9 59.3 3.0 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.0 7.0 17.5 119.4 63.2 57.0 2.1 4.0 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.0 16.7 115.1 61.9 55.2 1.4 4.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.1 15.9 115.1 61.7 54.8 1.5 3.1 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.9 7.3 16.1 118.8 67.2 56.3 1.0 3.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.6 19.4 110.1 62.5 57.4 6.6 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.8 13.6 112.0 63.1 53.1 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------