***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 6.4 7.1 19.0 141.6 75.4 65.1 1.0 4.8 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 4.8 6.1 16.4 144.1 74.4 65.7 0.6 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.2 11.9 21.3 161.6 80.8 68.4 0.9 5.1 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.5 13.0 24.4 138.5 74.0 66.4 3.0 6.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.4 10.7 25.0 144.7 75.8 66.4 0.7 3.7 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.2 11.6 23.6 132.5 72.0 65.1 1.6 3.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.3 15.6 140.3 72.9 66.2 0.5 2.2 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.7 25.2 34.8 183.4 85.7 74.6 5.8 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.1 11.9 25.7 163.2 81.0 70.1 0.2 1.9 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 12.9 19.3 35.5 186.1 86.9 74.7 1.0 2.7 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 8.4 14.9 29.4 167.1 82.2 70.4 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.0 11.0 27.2 163.4 79.7 70.1 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 10.1 14.3 29.7 150.8 79.6 69.9 2.6 6.2 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.2 28.2 32.0 188.2 85.8 72.8 1.7 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 9.2 10.8 23.1 148.3 75.5 68.9 1.9 3.8 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.9 25.9 145.6 76.1 68.0 2.7 4.8 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.8 5.6 14.0 129.3 70.8 63.2 0.5 1.4 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 12.5 23.7 36.9 191.9 88.3 76.2 0.8 3.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.8 11.1 17.5 148.1 75.8 65.7 0.9 3.5 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 9.3 13.8 42.2 192.6 89.6 79.1 1.1 3.0 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.0 14.0 22.9 154.7 80.2 68.2 0.5 2.0 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 5.2 3.6 15.1 130.8 70.8 62.6 0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.2 15.0 20.1 159.4 78.7 67.0 0.3 2.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.6 25.1 30.3 187.0 85.2 73.1 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.1 8.3 22.0 134.2 71.5 64.4 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 7.4 6.3 25.4 141.9 73.4 68.3 0.7 2.5 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.2 7.2 19.5 137.3 73.9 64.8 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 8.7 10.2 24.3 143.1 74.4 67.6 1.8 4.2 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 12.8 28.0 37.8 192.3 88.3 77.2 2.5 6.2 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.5 17.2 147.9 75.0 66.3 0.8 2.9 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------