***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.1 12.2 0.6 62.6 57.4 11.2 12.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.2 12.0 0.5 58.4 55.9 11.4 13.0 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.7 12.3 0.4 58.3 54.9 11.7 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 4.9 5.4 9.7 0.7 61.5 58.0 3.9 4.6 5.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.7 14.2 10.5 0.4 58.6 54.6 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.7 8.6 0.5 58.4 54.9 10.7 11.7 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.7 12.0 0.5 60.2 56.8 10.8 12.4 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.0 8.6 0.2 52.8 51.1 0.6 1.8 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.6 11.1 0.3 57.6 53.3 11.9 13.0 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.2 9.5 0.2 54.1 51.2 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 10.4 0.3 55.4 53.2 11.7 13.0 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.3 9.6 0.3 53.3 52.2 11.4 12.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.6 9.6 0.4 55.9 53.4 12.0 13.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.1 13.7 10.9 0.2 50.7 51.2 11.9 13.7 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 12.9 13.3 11.2 0.8 60.8 59.9 11.8 12.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 13.7 14.0 10.0 0.4 57.3 54.6 12.2 13.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.3 11.8 0.5 58.0 56.4 10.6 12.1 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.7 9.0 0.1 51.6 50.4 11.2 12.7 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.5 12.1 0.4 57.8 55.4 11.1 12.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.5 6.4 0.0 50.5 49.6 6.5 7.4 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.2 11.9 0.4 58.7 54.4 12.0 13.1 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 11.8 0.4 56.5 55.0 11.4 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.7 12.1 0.4 56.1 54.6 11.7 13.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.2 10.8 0.2 52.2 51.1 12.0 13.1 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 13.4 13.2 10.8 0.6 62.1 57.5 11.3 13.1 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.5 8.9 0.5 58.0 56.2 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.4 11.6 0.6 62.5 57.8 11.5 12.7 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.2 13.7 10.2 0.7 60.3 57.9 11.9 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.6 8.1 0.1 49.8 50.0 6.9 7.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 12.1 0.5 59.8 56.2 11.1 12.7 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------