***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.2 13.9 0.7 64.1 57.6 13.7 15.4 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 17.3 13.6 0.6 65.3 57.3 15.3 15.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.0 17.0 14.1 0.6 62.7 56.8 15.0 16.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 8.7 11.6 0.5 57.4 54.7 6.0 8.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.8 16.5 12.3 0.5 57.9 55.1 14.7 16.2 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.7 10.2 0.4 55.0 53.4 12.6 14.3 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.6 13.6 0.6 64.1 57.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.1 10.7 0.5 57.4 55.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.6 12.7 0.5 58.7 55.5 14.5 15.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.5 16.5 11.5 0.5 57.8 55.2 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.3 16.5 12.1 0.5 57.1 54.7 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.6 11.7 0.5 56.4 55.2 13.3 15.1 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 11.0 0.5 57.1 55.5 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 13.7 16.9 12.7 0.5 59.3 55.2 15.0 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.5 16.1 12.2 0.3 54.8 53.4 13.8 15.8 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.6 16.8 11.7 0.5 57.0 55.0 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.0 13.5 0.6 64.7 57.1 14.0 15.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 11.2 0.6 57.6 55.7 14.2 15.7 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.8 13.8 0.6 65.0 57.0 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.2 8.4 0.6 58.8 56.2 9.2 10.0 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.8 13.5 0.6 60.6 56.0 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.9 13.5 0.6 63.5 56.6 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.1 14.0 0.6 63.5 56.6 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.9 16.7 12.7 0.6 58.5 55.6 14.8 16.1 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.2 12.3 0.6 61.8 56.7 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.7 10.9 0.6 59.5 56.4 13.8 15.1 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.1 13.2 0.7 64.2 57.7 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.1 16.0 11.7 0.4 55.8 53.8 13.5 15.5 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.0 10.3 0.6 58.1 55.9 9.1 10.0 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.0 16.9 13.7 0.6 64.7 57.4 15.3 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------