***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.4 11.8 -0.4 45.8 44.6 11.8 13.8 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.3 11.7 -0.4 44.0 45.0 11.6 13.4 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.8 12.6 11.9 -0.6 43.2 43.6 12.2 13.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.9 9.4 -0.6 42.0 43.6 3.8 5.7 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.5 10.1 -0.8 39.8 42.5 12.0 14.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.8 8.2 -0.8 40.8 43.3 10.4 12.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.4 11.7 -0.3 44.4 45.8 11.4 12.6 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 0.0 0.4 8.5 -0.9 38.4 42.5 0.3 1.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 11.7 12.6 10.5 -0.8 40.5 42.2 11.9 14.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 11.5 12.0 9.2 -0.9 39.4 42.2 11.7 13.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 11.3 12.7 9.8 -0.8 39.7 42.1 12.0 13.8 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.3 11.9 9.4 -0.9 38.2 42.3 10.6 12.8 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 11.1 13.0 8.8 -0.8 38.5 42.3 11.7 13.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.5 13.2 10.5 -0.7 39.4 43.5 12.2 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.9 10.2 -0.6 43.4 43.5 13.2 14.0 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.8 13.5 9.5 -0.8 39.9 42.6 11.6 14.8 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.9 11.6 -0.3 45.4 45.9 10.9 12.3 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.2 11.7 9.0 -0.8 41.3 42.9 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.4 12.0 11.8 -0.5 43.7 44.5 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.2 6.4 -0.8 40.9 43.4 6.3 7.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 12.4 13.0 11.3 -0.7 42.2 42.8 12.0 14.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.4 11.6 -0.4 45.2 45.7 11.5 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 12.9 11.8 -0.6 43.1 43.9 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.6 10.4 -0.8 41.0 42.8 11.9 14.2 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.0 10.2 -0.5 45.1 44.2 12.3 13.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.3 8.8 -0.6 40.4 44.2 11.4 13.0 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.1 11.2 -0.4 45.5 45.1 11.8 13.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.0 13.5 9.6 -0.7 40.8 43.2 12.7 14.2 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.2 8.1 -0.8 40.7 43.2 6.2 8.5 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.9 12.2 11.7 -0.4 45.0 44.8 11.3 13.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------