***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.1 11.2 0.0 48.4 49.0 9.6 11.1 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.1 10.9 10.9 -0.2 45.5 47.2 9.9 11.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.0 11.9 11.4 -0.1 46.8 47.9 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.6 4.2 8.8 0.5 53.0 53.8 1.3 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.3 9.9 0.2 51.5 50.7 9.7 12.3 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.1 8.2 0.5 52.4 53.1 8.3 11.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.9 10.6 10.8 -0.2 46.3 47.3 9.6 11.1 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.1 8.1 0.1 50.9 50.0 -1.2 0.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.6 10.6 0.1 50.9 49.9 9.5 12.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.8 9.1 0.1 50.2 49.8 9.4 12.8 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.4 10.1 0.3 51.7 51.3 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.6 11.8 9.2 0.2 51.0 50.8 8.6 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.5 9.3 0.3 50.9 51.3 9.8 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.5 10.4 -0.1 47.7 48.1 9.9 12.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 12.3 12.5 10.6 0.6 53.9 54.5 9.9 11.7 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.0 9.6 0.4 52.7 52.1 10.2 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.2 10.6 -0.2 45.8 47.0 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 12.2 8.4 0.0 49.5 49.1 9.6 12.2 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.0 11.1 -0.2 45.6 47.5 9.8 11.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.5 5.9 -0.2 49.3 47.6 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.6 11.3 0.0 49.3 49.0 9.9 12.6 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.3 10.8 -0.2 46.1 46.9 9.9 11.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.3 11.3 -0.1 46.7 48.0 10.3 11.8 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.5 10.3 -0.1 48.6 48.3 10.4 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.5 11.9 10.0 0.1 49.8 50.1 9.5 11.9 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.5 8.4 0.5 54.0 53.2 9.5 11.7 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.2 10.5 0.0 48.4 48.7 9.6 11.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.2 9.6 0.6 53.9 54.4 9.3 12.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.5 7.6 0.0 49.6 48.7 3.9 6.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.0 11.0 -0.1 46.5 47.6 9.8 11.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------