***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.8 11.8 2.1 63.1 64.7 8.5 10.2 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.1 12.0 11.7 1.8 62.2 62.8 7.5 10.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 11.9 11.9 11.6 1.7 57.4 59.7 8.1 11.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 3.8 5.7 9.0 2.4 66.2 66.3 -0.5 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 11.4 11.7 9.8 1.7 59.1 60.3 7.7 11.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 10.4 10.9 7.8 1.8 64.1 63.1 7.4 10.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 47 53 100 12.6 12.3 11.7 2.0 66.2 65.1 7.6 10.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.7 1.6 7.0 0.8 55.3 54.8 -1.2 0.2 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 11.3 11.4 10.5 1.5 55.7 57.8 8.5 11.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 11.7 12.1 8.2 1.0 54.8 55.2 8.1 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 11.4 11.7 9.7 1.4 57.6 57.9 8.0 11.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 11.0 10.9 8.1 1.1 56.9 56.5 8.8 10.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 11.5 12.0 9.2 1.4 60.0 59.8 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 12.5 12.1 10.0 1.0 52.5 53.2 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 13.1 14.2 11.8 2.9 73.8 71.7 5.6 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 12.0 12.4 9.3 1.7 59.8 60.9 9.1 11.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.1 11.7 11.4 1.8 62.7 64.0 6.3 10.6 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.4 7.2 0.7 52.9 53.0 7.4 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.5 11.6 1.7 59.0 61.0 6.8 11.1 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 6.4 6.2 4.8 0.3 52.2 52.0 4.2 5.9 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 11.7 11.7 11.4 1.6 56.6 59.3 8.7 11.3 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 11.9 12.5 11.4 1.6 58.5 60.6 6.3 11.5 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 12.0 12.7 11.4 1.6 56.2 58.6 7.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 12.1 11.8 9.8 1.0 53.0 53.9 9.4 11.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 11.0 13.2 10.9 2.2 64.2 65.7 7.2 10.6 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 11.5 11.6 7.6 1.5 61.2 61.6 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.1 12.9 11.5 2.2 64.9 66.2 8.7 10.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 12.0 13.7 10.0 2.4 67.5 67.1 6.2 11.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 6.4 6.0 6.4 0.5 51.4 51.7 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 11.1 12.4 11.8 1.9 62.6 62.9 7.4 10.6 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------