***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 2.8 3.2 3.3 1.0 64.3 63.0 1.3 2.7 3.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 2.3 2.7 3.0 0.8 62.7 62.0 1.1 2.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 4.5 5.3 3.4 1.0 64.7 64.0 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -1.8 -1.3 1.0 1.3 65.5 66.9 -2.9 -2.0 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 47 53 100 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 66.4 66.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 1.2 1.1 -0.8 1.5 69.6 68.7 -0.1 0.7 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 2.6 2.9 2.9 0.8 62.0 60.9 1.5 2.5 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 -4.0 -3.7 -1.1 1.1 68.3 65.0 -5.9 -5.2 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.2 68.4 66.7 1.2 2.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 2.9 3.2 -0.2 1.1 68.1 65.1 1.3 2.3 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 2.7 3.1 0.8 1.3 69.7 67.1 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 1.5 1.7 -0.1 1.2 68.1 65.9 -0.1 0.8 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 2.0 2.4 -0.2 1.3 66.6 66.8 1.1 1.9 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 2.8 3.2 1.2 1.0 64.8 63.9 1.9 2.7 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 3.1 3.3 2.3 1.4 70.0 69.6 1.4 2.4 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 3.4 3.6 0.3 1.3 68.6 67.2 1.7 3.0 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 2.6 2.9 2.8 0.8 61.2 60.8 1.4 2.4 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 0.6 1.0 -0.9 1.1 66.6 63.8 -0.4 0.5 1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 2.4 2.9 3.0 0.9 63.6 62.8 1.1 2.3 3.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.9 0.9 67.2 62.7 -3.3 -2.3 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 2.5 2.9 2.8 1.1 66.2 65.5 1.3 2.5 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 2.1 2.1 2.7 0.8 61.7 61.7 0.8 2.0 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 1.9 2.4 2.8 0.9 64.7 63.7 1.1 1.8 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 2.3 2.8 1.1 1.1 66.5 65.0 1.2 2.2 2.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 2.6 2.9 2.3 1.1 64.3 64.3 1.2 2.5 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 1.8 2.2 -0.5 1.3 67.3 67.5 0.8 1.6 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 2.8 3.1 2.8 1.0 64.1 62.8 1.8 2.7 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 68.3 68.2 -0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 -0.7 0.1 -1.7 1.0 66.7 63.3 -1.8 -1.0 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 2.9 3.2 3.1 0.8 63.2 62.1 1.6 2.7 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------