***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 3.0 3.3 4.1 3.2 78.5 76.7 -0.7 0.8 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 2.3 2.9 3.7 2.8 76.4 75.0 -0.9 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 5.2 5.9 4.2 3.2 78.8 76.9 1.0 2.1 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 -0.9 0.1 2.4 3.9 88.8 86.7 -5.1 -4.0 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 1.6 2.1 3.1 3.8 83.0 80.9 -1.3 0.5 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 0.5 1.2 0.7 4.1 86.7 86.0 -2.3 -0.6 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 2.8 3.1 3.6 2.8 74.1 74.2 -0.5 0.3 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -4.1 -3.3 0.3 3.6 81.1 79.5 -8.4 -6.6 -4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.7 82.8 81.2 -0.1 0.8 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 2.5 2.8 1.2 3.6 80.7 79.4 -0.1 0.7 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.9 84.0 82.0 -0.1 0.6 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 1.1 1.2 1.6 3.8 83.0 81.1 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 2.0 2.1 1.8 3.9 84.7 83.5 -0.7 0.4 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 2.9 3.3 2.4 3.4 79.2 78.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.0 4.8 3.9 4.2 92.1 90.5 -1.0 1.1 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 3.0 3.6 2.1 4.0 86.2 84.1 -0.3 0.8 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.7 76.0 74.5 -0.7 0.6 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 0.3 0.6 0.5 3.4 79.0 77.7 -2.1 -0.8 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 2.7 3.3 3.6 2.9 77.5 75.8 -0.1 0.4 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 3.3 77.5 75.9 -6.1 -4.2 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 2.4 2.9 4.1 3.6 81.0 79.7 -0.5 1.0 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 2.2 2.8 3.4 2.7 76.6 74.6 -0.9 0.1 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.1 79.1 77.2 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.5 80.7 79.0 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 2.1 2.8 3.7 3.7 81.6 79.4 -0.1 0.9 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 1.7 1.9 1.1 3.7 83.2 81.7 -0.9 0.2 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.4 78.3 77.0 -0.2 0.8 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 1.4 2.4 3.0 4.1 90.6 88.8 -1.9 -0.2 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 3.4 78.0 76.6 -4.6 -1.7 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 3.1 3.4 3.9 2.9 76.3 75.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------