***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 41.1 49.3 71.8 136.6 80.5 72.1 17.1 23.3 41.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 43.5 47.9 63.3 137.4 78.1 72.5 15.7 25.7 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 54.4 69.0 69.8 133.4 78.3 70.8 19.9 29.5 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 51.1 56.2 78.2 127.4 75.8 65.9 26.0 41.9 51.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 45.6 52.6 78.7 130.6 77.5 68.7 30.1 35.5 46.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 45.3 48.2 78.1 124.9 74.3 68.3 24.2 38.1 43.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 34.6 41.0 63.0 139.9 80.3 73.9 19.7 25.1 32.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 81.5 84.6 78.4 118.8 69.5 64.8 50.1 69.3 78.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 47.3 54.6 78.4 129.8 76.9 68.5 19.7 35.0 44.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 54.6 62.7 80.3 121.0 71.1 64.9 29.6 36.1 58.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 51.2 56.5 74.9 125.5 74.7 66.7 26.3 41.7 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 50.9 57.8 73.4 124.0 74.5 67.3 30.4 35.8 53.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 54.6 61.2 82.5 129.4 77.0 69.9 34.2 41.3 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 65.1 68.6 85.3 125.8 72.6 67.8 34.8 45.0 60.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 39.5 53.4 71.1 125.7 72.0 62.9 23.2 34.3 51.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 44.8 50.3 77.9 130.3 77.8 69.4 28.7 35.2 40.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 35.1 39.7 61.6 139.8 79.2 72.4 16.7 23.2 30.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 44.4 50.3 83.7 118.9 69.2 64.5 28.0 32.9 46.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 49.1 54.9 64.9 135.0 77.8 71.7 20.6 29.9 38.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 48.0 52.5 99.7 120.9 71.4 67.1 24.6 36.0 51.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 42.8 53.5 75.1 132.9 78.5 69.4 19.4 29.0 45.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 41.0 37.9 63.3 133.1 75.6 69.7 20.8 26.3 32.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 46.7 54.0 69.2 133.4 78.4 71.1 21.4 31.6 41.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 60.2 60.9 78.8 124.3 71.3 66.6 33.3 46.5 59.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 48.7 60.9 82.3 137.5 83.6 72.8 20.9 31.9 38.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 43.9 48.0 78.4 126.2 76.9 69.3 18.7 34.8 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 43.7 54.3 76.2 137.7 82.3 73.0 22.3 27.2 37.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 44.4 48.1 73.9 126.0 73.9 64.7 19.6 33.3 43.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 63.9 76.9 88.0 118.0 68.4 64.4 46.9 58.7 75.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 41.3 45.2 64.9 136.3 78.6 72.4 16.9 28.4 37.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------