***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.0 14.7 16.0 126.2 72.7 58.6 2.7 3.0 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.8 12.0 13.8 123.0 68.8 55.8 1.5 4.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.2 15.8 125.2 71.5 57.7 2.9 5.0 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.6 16.4 105.3 61.3 51.8 5.8 10.5 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.8 17.3 111.9 65.3 54.1 2.4 5.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.5 8.9 17.1 102.1 57.1 52.1 4.9 7.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.3 11.7 13.9 124.4 69.7 56.0 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.7 24.7 17.9 106.9 62.6 54.0 5.7 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.0 9.8 18.3 116.4 68.0 55.3 1.3 4.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.4 19.0 110.9 64.1 54.7 2.4 8.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.6 16.2 108.4 63.0 53.5 2.3 4.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 16.5 110.6 64.4 54.7 2.6 8.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.6 17.7 18.3 112.0 62.2 55.4 4.7 11.3 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 19.8 19.7 118.2 67.3 55.6 5.5 12.6 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.5 13.5 14.3 98.7 62.0 49.2 2.2 5.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.9 16.7 108.8 63.0 53.5 2.4 7.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.7 13.7 122.8 69.0 55.2 1.8 4.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.8 20.4 112.2 63.7 55.5 2.0 8.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.5 14.2 122.1 68.7 56.2 1.7 7.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.3 22.5 109.3 63.7 55.6 5.5 9.8 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.6 17.2 121.5 70.1 56.8 2.0 4.7 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.2 14.1 116.6 66.7 54.9 2.1 8.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.6 12.6 15.1 122.2 68.5 56.8 3.6 10.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 13.9 18.6 118.1 65.7 56.0 3.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.7 17.5 118.5 67.2 56.3 3.3 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.0 16.9 106.8 59.8 53.4 3.1 5.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 12.9 16.6 123.8 69.7 57.5 2.5 4.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 11.3 15.3 101.3 60.0 50.0 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 18.8 20.7 109.7 63.9 55.1 6.0 10.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 9.8 14.3 123.5 70.2 56.6 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------