***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 10.3 11.1 17.8 148.6 73.5 65.6 1.0 3.8 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.6 15.6 143.9 74.2 65.6 0.7 2.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.3 14.1 17.4 147.3 74.9 65.8 2.8 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.5 14.7 20.3 159.6 78.0 64.6 4.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 17.7 24.7 21.1 164.1 80.1 67.7 4.6 7.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 7.7 13.0 19.7 137.2 74.4 63.6 2.7 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 10.1 12.3 15.0 140.9 74.6 64.7 1.2 4.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 21.6 25.6 21.2 142.0 76.5 65.4 6.6 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.0 19.3 22.4 165.4 81.9 68.8 2.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.0 22.4 22.9 153.2 79.5 68.1 3.5 6.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 17.3 24.1 19.7 154.1 78.9 66.5 2.7 7.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 16.5 23.0 18.8 144.0 76.8 64.5 2.5 5.1 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.9 20.6 20.0 145.0 75.6 64.9 3.7 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 17.4 20.4 23.0 144.5 74.7 66.9 3.6 9.0 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 11.9 15.6 18.9 158.4 76.9 63.3 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.0 17.3 19.1 148.6 76.8 63.6 2.7 5.6 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 11.0 13.0 14.7 140.4 74.3 63.8 2.4 7.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 12.4 15.2 24.3 149.2 78.6 68.9 3.6 6.4 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.1 16.1 142.3 73.0 65.6 1.0 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 15.9 20.0 27.2 141.1 75.5 66.6 4.1 6.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.0 16.8 19.9 160.8 77.7 67.1 3.8 6.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.3 15.4 135.6 70.6 63.1 3.2 6.9 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.3 12.6 17.4 141.8 72.6 65.7 2.4 3.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.7 21.7 147.2 76.2 67.7 5.2 9.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.3 12.6 20.5 156.1 75.6 66.2 2.5 4.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.4 10.2 18.6 135.8 74.4 62.7 2.2 4.9 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.9 18.9 148.4 74.0 65.8 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 18.7 19.7 158.5 78.2 63.9 0.9 4.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 17.5 22.2 25.2 144.3 76.5 68.1 5.0 8.7 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.4 19.1 15.8 143.4 74.7 65.8 1.7 3.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------