***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 4.2 4.7 16.0 130.9 74.3 63.0 0.5 2.4 3.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.9 15.1 141.7 74.0 64.2 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.2 8.2 16.6 138.4 76.4 64.5 1.9 4.3 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 10.2 17.5 119.3 68.3 59.8 3.1 4.4 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.9 8.2 18.0 127.7 71.4 63.5 1.4 3.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 7.4 8.1 19.0 128.9 72.7 62.0 2.2 3.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 4.8 6.3 14.9 144.8 75.0 64.4 0.8 2.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 16.4 17.0 18.8 123.7 69.4 63.6 10.3 12.4 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 9.6 10.1 18.2 126.2 72.2 63.9 2.0 4.9 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.1 14.4 18.7 124.4 70.7 63.8 3.8 5.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.2 17.4 119.4 67.7 61.0 1.9 3.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 9.5 10.2 18.2 126.3 70.8 63.7 2.7 4.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.1 9.4 21.8 144.1 75.7 67.4 3.3 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.9 15.6 20.6 138.4 75.9 65.2 2.7 4.8 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.6 16.1 115.7 68.6 57.5 0.0 1.3 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.8 18.3 128.0 70.9 62.3 2.0 3.5 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.9 6.1 15.3 148.9 76.7 64.4 0.4 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 11.5 12.3 19.4 122.7 73.0 62.1 1.9 4.9 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.7 8.9 15.6 140.5 74.5 64.1 0.8 2.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 10.1 10.7 24.5 127.7 72.3 65.4 3.5 6.7 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.7 7.4 16.9 126.6 72.1 63.0 0.9 4.5 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.5 9.2 16.1 145.8 77.4 64.7 0.2 2.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.3 7.2 16.8 142.1 75.2 64.8 0.4 2.2 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.4 19.0 131.8 75.9 64.2 2.6 4.4 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 6.2 7.3 19.3 134.9 73.5 65.2 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.9 9.6 20.0 133.5 72.2 64.0 1.1 3.0 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.1 7.1 17.5 134.3 73.2 64.0 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.1 6.3 17.1 120.4 67.8 59.8 0.6 2.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.1 24.2 21.5 126.2 72.8 63.6 5.2 10.0 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 4.7 5.3 15.5 141.4 75.2 64.6 0.9 3.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------