***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 7.6 7.3 22.0 140.5 72.8 68.7 1.1 5.9 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.9 18.9 141.0 71.8 69.7 0.7 1.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 6.6 6.6 19.9 125.8 68.7 65.2 1.0 5.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 11.8 14.5 24.0 130.1 73.2 66.2 3.3 5.8 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.5 9.3 22.3 124.9 68.1 62.7 1.3 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.2 12.4 22.3 133.7 70.0 65.0 0.3 2.8 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.3 9.8 19.2 148.5 75.8 71.6 0.5 2.1 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 15.8 19.2 20.6 108.2 62.1 58.5 6.7 13.8 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 4.9 8.3 19.5 116.6 65.8 61.1 0.1 3.5 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 6.4 7.5 19.6 102.6 59.6 55.7 0.6 4.5 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.2 21.6 124.8 67.5 63.5 0.8 4.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.5 9.6 20.0 119.0 66.5 62.1 0.9 6.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.6 10.2 22.5 121.2 65.5 60.7 0.9 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 6.7 8.9 22.0 108.2 63.1 60.1 0.8 4.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.3 21.8 134.1 73.8 68.5 1.1 3.4 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 9.9 11.0 23.7 137.6 72.0 66.5 1.5 5.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.6 6.4 17.9 147.1 73.6 70.1 0.4 1.4 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.6 19.7 97.8 59.0 54.9 0.9 3.5 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 10.8 7.5 19.1 135.5 71.4 68.4 0.8 2.8 4.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.6 7.3 25.6 111.5 64.1 59.7 1.0 5.6 7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 9.3 7.1 21.0 126.7 70.0 65.0 0.8 2.2 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 5.6 7.4 17.6 135.6 73.2 67.0 0.6 1.2 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 9.2 12.2 19.8 129.0 70.4 66.2 0.3 1.5 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 7.4 7.3 19.5 105.4 62.6 58.3 1.2 4.7 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 7.3 8.8 25.0 141.6 74.6 68.2 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.0 10.9 22.8 130.0 71.4 64.3 0.5 2.2 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 7.8 8.7 23.2 143.6 74.3 69.0 1.1 4.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 8.1 9.8 21.9 129.0 72.5 66.2 1.5 3.5 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 9.5 12.9 20.6 97.9 59.9 54.2 3.7 6.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.5 19.3 137.3 72.2 68.9 0.5 1.7 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------