***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.1 10.5 -0.7 35.8 39.9 11.0 12.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.6 11.0 10.3 -0.8 33.4 37.5 11.0 12.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.3 11.6 11.0 -0.4 40.7 44.1 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 3.5 7.0 -1.4 28.7 32.6 3.7 4.5 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.1 9.3 -0.3 41.2 45.6 11.4 13.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.5 7.9 0.2 50.4 51.4 10.4 11.5 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.2 10.5 10.2 -0.9 32.2 36.6 10.6 12.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.8 8.0 0.1 50.9 50.9 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.2 10.1 -0.2 43.6 47.1 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.6 8.9 0.0 48.8 49.5 11.4 12.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.7 9.7 0.1 49.4 50.4 11.4 12.8 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.8 9.0 0.2 50.5 51.8 11.2 11.8 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.8 9.1 0.3 50.2 52.6 12.0 12.8 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.8 12.7 10.3 0.0 46.6 49.8 11.6 13.4 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 9.9 11.3 8.1 -1.7 23.9 28.8 11.6 12.3 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.1 9.1 0.0 47.9 49.3 12.1 13.3 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.1 9.9 -1.0 30.9 35.1 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.5 8.4 0.1 50.0 50.1 11.1 12.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.1 10.7 -0.6 36.6 40.5 10.9 12.4 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.4 6.0 0.1 51.9 50.4 6.4 7.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.0 10.8 -0.3 41.6 45.8 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.1 10.2 -0.9 33.2 36.7 11.1 12.3 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.1 11.1 -0.3 42.1 45.4 11.6 13.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.6 10.2 0.0 48.2 49.7 11.6 12.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.4 9.0 -0.7 34.9 40.0 11.3 12.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.5 8.2 0.3 51.8 53.4 11.4 12.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.5 9.9 -0.7 36.0 40.2 11.5 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.8 7.7 -1.4 30.0 33.6 11.9 12.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.5 7.6 0.1 51.0 50.7 6.5 7.5 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.1 10.9 10.4 -0.7 34.7 38.5 10.8 12.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------