***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.0 11.8 -0.9 39.1 43.3 13.1 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.7 11.6 -1.0 36.6 41.6 14.4 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 13.8 14.8 12.1 -0.8 38.0 43.8 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 5.9 9.4 -0.9 35.8 44.2 5.5 7.5 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.9 14.4 10.3 -0.8 37.8 45.2 13.9 16.2 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.0 8.6 -0.4 46.3 47.8 13.0 14.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 13.1 14.6 11.5 -1.0 36.1 41.4 14.4 14.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 1.4 3.0 8.7 -0.7 39.4 45.7 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 13.4 14.2 10.7 -0.8 38.9 45.4 13.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.6 9.5 -0.8 38.8 45.5 14.2 15.9 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.6 10.1 -0.7 38.7 45.9 13.7 16.0 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.5 9.7 -0.7 39.0 45.9 13.5 15.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.9 9.0 -0.7 41.0 45.6 14.7 15.9 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.5 10.6 -0.9 37.9 43.2 14.3 16.2 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.9 10.5 -0.7 39.5 45.9 13.2 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.9 9.7 -0.7 40.4 45.9 14.3 16.3 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.8 11.4 -1.0 35.9 40.8 13.7 15.0 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.4 9.1 -0.8 39.9 45.0 13.3 15.6 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.4 11.8 -0.9 37.4 42.3 13.9 15.8 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.8 6.3 -0.8 41.8 43.7 8.6 10.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.7 14.4 11.5 -0.8 38.1 44.8 14.0 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 13.3 15.0 11.4 -1.0 35.8 41.0 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.8 12.0 -0.9 38.3 43.3 14.4 16.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.7 10.6 -0.8 38.3 44.6 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.8 10.2 -0.9 37.1 44.1 14.0 15.6 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.7 8.8 -0.6 42.6 46.6 14.1 15.8 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.9 15.1 11.1 -0.9 38.4 43.4 14.3 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.6 9.8 -0.8 38.8 45.3 12.8 15.4 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.5 8.1 -0.8 40.0 44.1 8.2 10.5 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.8 11.6 -1.0 36.9 42.2 14.2 15.7 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------