***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.3 10.4 -1.4 36.0 40.2 11.8 13.0 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.2 10.3 -1.4 32.3 38.9 11.2 12.4 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.6 11.8 10.8 -1.3 36.1 41.3 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.2 7.9 -1.6 34.5 39.0 2.7 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.0 9.2 -1.2 39.2 43.1 11.4 13.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.2 7.5 -0.9 41.9 44.9 9.7 11.8 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.7 10.7 10.2 -1.5 31.3 38.3 10.8 12.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.4 -0.2 7.8 -0.9 41.3 45.0 -0.7 1.2 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.3 11.9 9.7 -1.1 40.3 44.0 11.4 12.9 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 11.5 8.5 -1.1 40.4 44.4 11.1 12.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.1 9.1 -1.1 40.5 44.2 11.1 13.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.4 10.8 8.7 -0.9 40.6 44.6 10.6 11.9 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.9 11.9 8.0 -1.0 38.1 43.8 11.0 12.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.5 12.3 9.4 -1.3 36.0 42.2 12.2 13.0 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.3 12.3 9.0 -1.3 35.8 40.8 11.8 14.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.4 12.2 8.6 -1.1 39.6 43.7 11.4 13.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.3 10.1 -1.4 32.2 38.4 10.5 11.6 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.4 8.1 -1.1 39.5 43.6 11.0 12.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.3 10.5 -1.4 33.7 39.9 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.3 5.5 -1.0 40.9 43.8 5.6 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.3 12.2 10.3 -1.2 39.0 42.9 11.8 13.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.6 10.2 -1.4 33.1 39.3 11.6 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 11.4 12.0 10.7 -1.3 35.6 41.3 11.8 12.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.2 9.4 -1.2 37.6 42.9 11.9 12.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.8 8.9 -1.4 36.2 40.8 11.3 13.1 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.2 11.4 8.0 -0.7 40.8 45.4 10.6 11.7 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 11.3 11.5 9.7 -1.4 35.9 40.1 11.4 13.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.3 8.4 -1.4 36.3 40.6 11.5 13.9 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.2 7.1 -1.1 38.8 43.3 5.7 7.1 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.2 10.7 10.3 -1.4 32.8 39.1 10.7 12.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------