***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.3 9.8 -0.8 39.2 43.2 9.9 11.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.5 9.8 -0.8 39.3 42.9 9.4 11.5 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.3 10.5 10.3 -0.5 41.9 45.5 9.9 12.6 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 1.3 5.8 -1.7 33.4 36.8 1.2 4.9 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.4 8.5 -0.4 44.2 46.8 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.3 10.6 7.0 -0.1 49.6 49.2 8.7 10.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.1 9.6 -0.9 38.7 41.5 9.1 11.1 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.3 0.2 7.4 0.2 50.7 51.3 -0.8 0.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.8 12.0 9.6 -0.1 46.5 49.3 9.8 12.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.8 13.0 8.3 0.1 50.7 51.1 9.9 12.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.5 12.3 9.1 0.0 49.2 50.3 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.1 11.4 8.2 0.1 49.3 50.6 9.2 11.6 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.3 8.3 0.0 49.0 49.6 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.6 9.7 -0.1 45.1 49.1 10.3 12.9 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.7 10.2 7.7 -1.5 31.9 37.0 10.3 12.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.4 8.4 -0.1 49.0 49.0 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.4 -0.9 37.9 41.4 9.4 10.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.4 7.9 0.2 51.4 51.6 9.7 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 10.3 10.1 -0.6 40.3 44.3 9.9 11.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.9 5.5 0.1 50.7 50.6 5.3 6.8 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.6 10.1 -0.4 43.6 46.5 10.3 12.6 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.8 -0.7 38.4 43.4 9.6 11.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.9 10.4 -0.4 42.4 46.2 10.3 11.8 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.0 9.6 0.0 47.8 49.8 10.3 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.2 8.3 -0.8 39.4 43.2 9.6 12.3 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.1 7.1 -0.1 46.0 48.5 9.9 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.0 9.2 -0.8 38.7 42.8 9.8 11.5 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 9.0 10.7 6.9 -1.4 35.8 38.8 10.2 12.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.6 7.1 0.1 50.2 51.3 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.2 9.9 -0.7 39.5 43.2 9.3 11.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------