***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 11.6 10.3 9.9 0.3 45.0 48.4 7.6 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 11.4 10.0 9.7 0.0 44.2 46.0 7.2 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 12.0 11.9 10.9 1.1 52.1 54.1 8.2 11.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 4.0 1.0 4.9 -1.5 38.4 38.5 0.0 3.7 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 11.7 11.7 9.2 1.1 55.2 55.2 8.0 11.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 10.8 11.3 8.4 2.0 65.4 63.8 7.6 10.4 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 11.4 9.3 9.5 -0.2 43.0 45.1 6.8 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 1.1 1.7 8.3 2.0 64.4 63.1 -0.7 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 11.6 11.6 10.3 1.2 55.2 55.2 9.1 11.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 11.7 12.2 9.1 1.7 60.0 59.5 8.2 11.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 11.6 12.9 10.6 2.0 63.8 62.3 8.0 11.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.3 9.6 2.3 67.4 66.2 8.7 10.9 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.6 11.0 2.9 70.2 69.6 9.1 11.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 12.3 12.8 11.5 2.4 62.0 63.3 8.5 11.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 4.7 5.5 5.3 -3.4 28.9 27.9 5.8 10.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 12.4 12.8 9.7 1.9 61.3 61.6 9.3 12.0 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 11.0 8.6 8.8 -0.5 41.4 43.2 6.4 10.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 11.3 11.9 8.6 1.9 61.5 61.7 8.0 10.8 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 11.6 11.4 10.3 0.5 47.6 50.0 7.3 11.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 7.7 7.3 6.6 2.0 67.2 65.4 4.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 11.8 12.0 11.1 1.3 55.2 55.6 8.8 11.6 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 11.9 9.6 9.3 -0.3 42.5 44.4 6.7 11.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 12.0 12.2 11.3 1.5 55.1 57.0 8.2 11.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.4 11.0 2.1 60.6 61.9 9.0 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 10.8 10.0 8.7 0.2 45.3 48.5 7.4 10.6 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 13.6 13.3 9.0 2.7 71.3 70.5 10.2 11.5 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 11.3 11.0 9.6 0.4 47.4 50.4 8.1 11.2 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.8 7.9 5.7 -1.8 37.3 36.9 6.5 10.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 6.4 6.7 8.3 2.2 65.2 64.7 4.5 6.0 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 11.2 10.4 9.8 0.1 44.9 46.9 6.9 11.0 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------