***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.0 2.0 -0.2 43.5 45.5 1.1 2.5 3.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 2.1 1.1 1.7 -0.4 39.0 42.0 1.0 1.8 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 4.3 3.5 2.2 0.0 44.6 47.2 3.1 4.1 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -2.9 -1.2 -0.6 35.7 38.9 -3.1 -2.2 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.1 46.0 48.8 0.4 1.6 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 0.8 0.7 -2.0 0.5 53.7 54.5 -0.3 0.6 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 2.4 1.6 1.7 -0.4 39.5 41.9 1.3 2.3 2.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -5.0 -4.9 -2.0 0.4 54.4 54.1 -6.1 -5.4 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.3 0.2 0.1 45.6 47.9 1.1 2.5 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 2.3 2.2 -1.3 0.2 51.0 51.0 1.3 2.1 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 2.0 1.8 -0.3 0.4 50.4 52.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.9 -0.8 0.7 55.9 57.3 -0.4 0.8 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.1 -0.8 0.8 60.5 59.6 0.9 1.8 2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 2.6 2.3 0.2 0.3 47.6 51.6 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.3 -0.2 -0.8 31.6 34.6 1.4 2.3 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 2.9 2.8 -0.7 0.5 52.1 53.9 1.4 2.8 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.5 1.4 1.4 -0.5 37.9 40.0 1.2 2.2 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 0.5 0.4 -1.9 0.3 51.7 52.9 -0.5 0.4 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 2.2 1.5 1.7 -0.3 39.1 43.2 1.0 2.1 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -2.1 -3.3 0.6 59.1 58.7 -3.5 -2.5 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.0 45.6 48.1 1.2 2.3 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 2.0 0.9 1.3 -0.5 37.2 39.6 0.7 1.7 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 1.7 1.4 1.6 -0.1 41.8 45.7 0.9 1.6 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 2.1 2.0 0.0 0.2 48.9 50.8 1.0 2.0 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.2 0.8 -0.2 43.6 45.3 1.2 2.5 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 2.3 2.0 -1.0 1.0 63.4 62.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 2.7 1.9 1.6 -0.1 45.3 47.1 1.6 2.6 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 35.7 38.8 -0.1 1.0 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -1.0 -2.5 0.4 54.9 55.0 -1.9 -1.4 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 2.7 1.7 1.8 -0.3 40.1 43.2 1.4 2.5 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------