***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.8 2.9 -0.5 41.5 45.9 3.1 4.5 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.8 2.7 -0.6 41.9 45.1 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.8 2.9 -0.6 40.0 45.6 5.5 6.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 34.4 43.7 -1.0 0.7 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.8 0.3 -0.6 35.3 45.8 1.2 3.8 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.5 -1.8 -0.4 39.6 46.3 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.2 2.7 -0.6 40.8 44.9 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -5.0 -3.7 -2.0 -0.7 36.3 45.7 -3.9 -2.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.6 0.7 -0.5 39.0 46.6 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.7 -1.1 -0.7 37.0 45.8 3.0 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.6 2.4 -0.4 -0.6 35.1 46.1 2.0 4.5 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.6 -1.0 -0.5 36.3 46.7 0.8 3.3 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.5 -1.3 -0.4 38.2 47.0 1.9 3.8 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.9 0.4 -0.6 35.5 45.1 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.8 1.3 -0.5 39.9 45.6 3.2 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.7 -0.8 -0.5 36.6 46.3 3.4 5.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.2 2.6 -0.6 41.6 44.8 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.6 0.3 -2.0 -0.8 35.7 44.6 0.1 2.2 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.8 2.7 -0.6 41.0 45.2 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 -4.0 -0.9 35.9 44.6 -1.6 0.0 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.4 2.1 -0.5 40.2 46.3 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.3 -0.6 40.3 45.0 2.8 3.8 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.2 2.4 -0.6 39.0 45.3 3.0 3.8 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.9 0.2 -0.7 36.6 44.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.0 1.4 -0.6 37.9 45.9 3.4 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.8 -1.4 -0.3 40.0 47.5 2.1 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.0 2.3 -0.5 39.6 46.1 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.5 1.8 0.2 -0.7 36.6 44.5 1.6 3.0 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.9 0.2 -2.7 -0.9 35.2 44.2 0.1 1.1 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.2 2.8 -0.6 41.3 45.2 3.6 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------