***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.0 1.4 -0.1 47.4 47.7 -0.1 1.2 2.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 0.8 0.0 1.2 -0.2 42.8 46.4 -0.3 0.2 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.5 1.6 0.1 47.2 48.6 1.6 2.6 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -2.2 -0.9 33.8 38.8 -4.7 -3.9 -1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 45.9 48.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -0.7 -3.0 0.2 46.3 49.9 -1.3 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.4 1.1 -0.2 46.0 46.5 0.0 0.6 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -4.5 -5.0 -2.7 0.4 49.2 51.2 -7.2 -5.0 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.6 -0.1 0.4 49.6 50.8 0.1 0.6 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.7 -1.8 0.4 50.0 51.1 0.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.3 -0.8 0.5 48.8 51.7 -0.4 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -0.1 -0.4 -1.5 0.6 51.1 53.0 -0.9 -0.5 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.8 -1.5 0.6 51.2 54.0 -0.2 0.7 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.4 -0.1 0.6 51.6 52.7 0.6 1.2 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.1 -0.9 31.6 37.1 0.1 1.2 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.4 -1.4 0.4 48.2 51.4 0.2 1.5 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.4 1.0 -0.3 43.5 45.9 0.0 0.6 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -0.3 -2.2 0.5 52.2 52.3 -1.7 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 1.3 0.3 1.2 -0.1 42.8 46.7 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.0 0.4 51.9 51.4 -4.6 -2.7 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.3 50.1 50.1 -0.4 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.1 1.0 -0.2 43.3 45.8 -0.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.0 45.1 47.8 -0.3 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.5 51.1 52.0 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.2 45.4 46.5 -0.2 0.9 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 0.9 0.5 -2.0 0.5 49.2 52.9 -0.1 0.5 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.0 1.0 -0.1 48.0 48.2 -0.3 1.1 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 -0.8 35.0 39.7 -1.2 -0.6 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.7 -3.0 0.5 51.5 52.3 -3.5 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.4 1.3 -0.2 43.5 46.7 -0.1 0.6 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------