***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 0.8 0.8 1.7 0.5 50.5 49.8 -0.8 0.7 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.2 1.0 -0.2 46.0 45.3 -0.8 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 96 4 100 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.7 50.4 51.3 1.3 2.7 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 -3.3 -4.4 -1.5 0.0 42.9 42.9 -4.7 -3.4 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 53.1 53.4 -1.4 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.1 2.1 62.3 62.6 -2.1 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 0.8 0.3 0.9 -0.3 45.4 45.1 -0.9 0.6 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -5.6 -5.0 -1.0 2.0 61.3 61.9 -8.3 -5.7 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 96 4 100 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.5 49.7 48.8 -0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 0.8 0.9 -0.9 1.3 54.5 54.9 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 97 3 100 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.5 55.3 56.2 -0.1 0.5 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.5 65.9 66.8 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.9 71.9 72.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 1.4 1.9 0.5 1.3 53.4 54.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 31.2 31.5 -1.0 1.4 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 1.1 1.8 0.3 1.9 60.6 60.8 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 1.1 0.4 0.4 -0.6 41.9 41.9 -0.7 0.9 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 1.6 57.4 57.6 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.0 47.4 46.6 -0.5 0.4 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 3.2 72.4 72.5 -6.7 -4.2 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.7 50.6 50.5 -0.3 1.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 1.0 -0.4 0.5 -0.6 41.4 41.3 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 96 4 100 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.5 49.9 49.4 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 97 3 100 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 51.6 52.7 -0.6 0.3 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 49.4 49.7 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 2.0 2.3 1.1 3.6 80.7 79.7 -0.8 0.3 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.8 52.0 51.9 -0.1 0.9 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 0.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.4 40.2 40.2 -1.7 -0.5 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 -1.8 -0.7 -1.6 2.1 62.5 62.2 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.0 48.4 47.2 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------