***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 17.5 23.6 48.7 88.3 40.6 41.2 19.8 26.9 43.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 15.2 24.6 45.4 91.7 43.3 43.9 19.3 26.5 31.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 23.0 28.6 50.2 90.3 42.0 43.2 20.2 35.3 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 29.4 33.6 53.2 84.6 38.1 39.0 28.9 38.6 53.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 24.4 33.8 55.4 91.9 43.6 42.6 27.7 37.6 45.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 26.9 37.9 55.8 92.5 46.7 44.5 24.2 38.1 43.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.4 23.7 43.5 89.8 40.9 43.0 20.3 28.3 34.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 52.3 68.8 58.0 93.4 45.7 44.3 55.1 71.3 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 21.9 31.8 58.1 95.3 47.1 44.4 24.1 34.5 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 28.8 36.2 60.5 94.8 45.9 44.3 31.0 37.3 56.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 28.2 37.3 53.9 92.5 45.7 43.8 26.3 42.1 55.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 24.2 35.5 52.5 93.0 46.0 44.8 29.4 35.9 54.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 29.8 41.0 57.9 94.2 46.9 45.8 33.6 43.6 56.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 36.7 49.8 66.9 95.2 48.4 46.6 36.6 51.6 60.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 19.7 28.7 47.6 80.3 39.7 37.9 24.7 36.1 54.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 24.4 34.2 54.9 92.8 45.2 44.5 28.1 35.8 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 16.2 20.6 46.1 94.5 47.5 46.4 17.6 22.4 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 28.1 32.8 64.0 94.6 46.1 44.2 31.2 35.1 44.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.0 30.9 47.7 92.8 45.2 44.7 22.8 32.2 44.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 29.0 30.1 69.1 89.5 41.8 41.4 24.7 35.9 48.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 23.1 29.0 54.1 91.8 44.8 43.2 19.1 33.9 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.0 27.1 51.5 98.8 53.1 49.3 21.4 26.8 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 24.7 29.1 51.7 93.5 45.1 45.8 23.3 36.0 47.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 33.1 47.0 61.2 94.9 47.9 45.5 39.2 49.1 62.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 22.2 27.1 54.6 86.8 39.2 40.0 22.1 33.5 38.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.0 29.8 54.2 91.7 43.6 44.7 19.5 34.8 42.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.3 26.8 50.6 87.2 39.1 40.4 22.9 29.6 40.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 21.1 25.2 50.8 84.8 41.3 40.0 20.6 33.9 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 66.7 59.1 65.7 92.4 45.0 43.2 48.6 60.0 76.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 18.3 27.3 45.7 90.2 41.2 43.1 21.9 30.0 42.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------