***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.9 10.1 74.8 47.7 42.0 2.0 3.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.8 10.1 83.7 54.4 44.3 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.0 10.5 79.2 51.3 44.3 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 9.2 10.7 71.5 46.7 41.4 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.6 10.8 73.8 48.5 43.3 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.0 7.9 11.5 73.2 48.0 43.3 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.7 9.6 79.0 51.9 43.1 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 15.9 12.3 81.4 51.5 46.2 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.3 11.7 78.1 47.3 44.2 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.0 12.7 80.6 48.9 45.5 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 4.7 10.5 74.9 49.8 44.8 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.8 10.7 77.4 52.0 45.5 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.8 11.4 11.4 72.7 49.6 43.3 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 11.4 13.6 80.4 50.5 44.8 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.2 10.6 74.7 49.5 40.8 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.2 6.4 10.6 71.9 49.1 43.4 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 10.4 86.0 54.7 45.0 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.3 13.8 82.9 49.2 46.3 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.4 84.3 54.3 44.7 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 9.7 15.4 82.3 50.2 46.2 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 4.6 10.7 75.5 46.3 43.3 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.8 11.5 89.9 57.5 46.0 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.5 10.9 10.8 81.9 54.1 44.8 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.5 8.6 12.8 82.3 51.2 45.4 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.5 6.1 10.4 67.5 44.4 39.3 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.0 11.7 77.9 52.3 45.0 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.8 10.0 69.7 45.0 40.0 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 5.3 10.6 73.4 48.3 42.2 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 10.7 14.2 82.5 49.1 46.4 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.2 82.4 53.4 44.1 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------