***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.1 14.2 114.0 64.8 58.8 0.9 3.0 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 3.0 4.0 13.2 115.7 66.0 58.6 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.0 15.8 122.2 68.9 61.4 3.1 4.8 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 9.8 10.8 18.3 130.9 72.1 62.6 3.2 5.8 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.2 8.4 19.2 140.5 74.1 65.2 1.5 3.2 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 7.1 8.8 20.3 148.8 77.4 66.2 1.7 3.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.2 5.7 12.4 113.5 65.9 58.7 1.0 2.4 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 15.1 16.9 20.7 147.0 76.9 66.0 10.1 12.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.4 10.0 19.5 138.5 76.0 65.1 1.6 4.5 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 12.9 16.3 20.9 145.9 77.4 67.0 3.4 5.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.9 19.7 144.8 74.9 66.3 1.3 3.8 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.2 9.3 18.9 142.9 74.6 64.6 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.6 7.5 21.4 150.5 77.3 67.7 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 12.3 13.2 20.8 133.7 74.6 64.4 2.7 5.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.2 5.6 16.8 125.5 71.7 60.6 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.3 11.7 19.7 146.1 75.8 66.3 1.7 2.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.2 4.1 12.8 117.8 66.2 58.6 0.6 2.6 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.4 12.9 21.2 138.1 76.5 64.8 2.0 5.1 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.8 8.1 14.2 119.8 68.2 59.5 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.9 23.8 135.5 74.6 63.0 3.3 6.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 6.7 7.4 18.1 133.7 74.1 64.9 1.4 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.6 5.0 14.1 119.0 66.6 58.2 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.9 7.3 15.8 125.9 70.5 61.0 0.7 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.5 19.7 132.8 75.2 64.1 2.5 5.2 8.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.0 7.3 17.7 123.1 69.1 62.3 0.9 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.6 7.4 19.8 144.3 74.4 64.7 0.8 2.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.2 7.1 15.4 115.9 66.0 60.1 1.1 3.6 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.4 7.4 17.8 132.9 73.1 62.2 1.0 2.2 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.1 15.7 22.1 137.5 75.8 64.6 4.2 10.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 3.4 4.2 13.4 114.6 65.3 58.7 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------